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The drought trend and its relationship with rainfall intensity in the Loess Plateau of China

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  • L. Wang
  • Q. Zhu
  • W. Zhao
  • X. Zhao

Abstract

Drought is one of the major natural disasters in the Loess Plateau of China. We aimed to reveal drought occurrence regularity, relations between different magnitudes of drought and precipitation intensity changes. Based on Chinese climate divisions and digital elevation model graphs of the Loess Plateau region, our study area was divided into five subregions by means of cluster analysis of the region’s meteorological stations using a self-organizing map neural network. Utilizing daily precipitation data from 72 stations for the 1961–2012 period, and using the number of consecutive days without precipitation as the drought level evaluation, the frequency and differing magnitudes of drought occurrences in each season were analyzed. In addition, the first precipitation intensity after a drought period was analyzed using a Pearson type III frequency curve. Precipitation frequency changes following drought occurrences with different magnitudes in each subregion were analyzed, and the relationship between rainfall intensity and different drought magnitudes was observed, as was the relationship between rainfall intensity and the number of drought occurrences. The results of our study indicate that, first, changes in drought levels in the region within and between years are not obvious, but that changes are significant between decades. Moreover, drought frequency in subregions I, IV and V of our study was higher than in areas II and III. Second, as the drought level increased, the probability of heavy rainstorms and extraordinary rainstorms in the Loess Plateau region became lower, and the frequency of spatial changes at different precipitation intensities varied. The frequency of different precipitation intensities in subregions I, II, IV and V initially showed a decreasing trend, but, with continued development of drought and when extraordinary drought occurred, moderate and heavy rain became an increasing trend, with the frequency of rainstorms and heavy rainstorms decreasing at first, then becoming the same. The probability of moderate and heavy rain in subregion III showed a decreasing trend; that of rainstorms, heavy rainstorms and extraordinary rainstorms initially decreased then became the same. Third, while the frequency of drought occurrences in the Loess Plateau region for the 1961–2012 period showed an increasing trend overall, the extent of the increase differed among the different subregions. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • L. Wang & Q. Zhu & W. Zhao & X. Zhao, 2015. "The drought trend and its relationship with rainfall intensity in the Loess Plateau of China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(1), pages 479-495, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:77:y:2015:i:1:p:479-495
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1594-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. B. Bonaccorso & I. Bordi & A. Cancelliere & G. Rossi & A. Sutera, 2003. "Spatial Variability of Drought: An Analysis of the SPI in Sicily," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 17(4), pages 273-296, August.
    2. A. Cancelliere & G. Mauro & B. Bonaccorso & G. Rossi, 2007. "Drought forecasting using the Standardized Precipitation Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 801-819, May.
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    1. Xingkai Zhao & Zengyao Li & Qingke Zhu & Danhong Zhu & Huifang Liu, 2017. "Climatic and drought characteristics in the loess hilly-gully region of China from 1957 to 2014," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(6), pages 1-28, June.
    2. Qiang, Shengcai & Zhang, Yan & Fan, Junliang & Zhang, Fucang & Sun, Min & Gao, Zhiqiang, 2022. "Combined effects of ridge–furrow ratio and urea type on grain yield and water productivity of rainfed winter wheat on the Loess Plateau of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    3. Chunlan Guo & Timothy Sim & Guiwu Su, 2021. "Individual Disaster Preparedness in Drought-and-Flood-Prone Villages in Northwest China: Impact of Place, Out-Migration and Community," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-14, February.
    4. Junju Zhou & Haitao Tang & Yu Qiu & Zhaonan Guo & Chuyu Luo & Xue Wang & Wei Shi & Dongxia Zhang & Chunli Wang & Xuemei Yang & Chunfang Liu & Wei Wei, 2023. "Spatio-Temporal Changes and Influencing Factors of Meteorological Dry-Wet in Northern China during 1960–2019," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-23, January.

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