IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/syspar/v29y2016i3d10.1007_s11213-015-9365-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Participatory Demographic Scenarios Addressing Uncertainty and Transformative Change in Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Atsede D. Tegegne

    (BOKU, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences
    BOKU, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences)

  • Marianne Penker

    (BOKU, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences)

  • Maria Wurzinger

    (BOKU, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences)

Abstract

Projections on future population trends provide important decision support, however are confronted with high uncertainty. In contexts of low data quality, missing and contradicting knowledge on drivers of change, such as in many developing countries, participatory scenarios can support the quality of assumptions needed for quantitative projections. We present a scenario approach designed for contexts of uncertain and missing demographic data and illiteracy, which was successfully tested in three study sites in North-West Ethiopia. The four qualitative scenarios for 2030 supported the inter-subjective definition of assumptions for the calculations, which were again validated by members of the rural communities. We argue that the participation process has resulted in more robust and context-specific projections. The collaborative work on the local drivers of demographic change between science and society provided a valuable space for social learning, so that local stakeholders could identify the need for and scope of local mitigation or adaptation measures to demographic transformation.

Suggested Citation

  • Atsede D. Tegegne & Marianne Penker & Maria Wurzinger, 2016. "Participatory Demographic Scenarios Addressing Uncertainty and Transformative Change in Ethiopia," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 277-296, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:syspar:v:29:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s11213-015-9365-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11213-015-9365-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11213-015-9365-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11213-015-9365-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lindelow, Magnus & Serneels, Pieter, 2006. "The performance of health workers in Ethiopia: Results from qualitative research," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 62(9), pages 2225-2235, May.
    2. F. C. Billari & R. Graziani & E. Melilli, 2012. "Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 175(2), pages 491-511, April.
    3. Samer Al-Samarrai & Paul Bennell, 2007. "Where has all the education gone in sub-Saharan Africa? employment and other outcomes among secondary school and university leavers," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(7), pages 1270-1300.
    4. Thaddeus, Sereen & Maine, Deborah, 1994. "Too far to walk: Maternal mortality in context," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 1091-1110, April.
    5. Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel & Maton, Laure & Terrason, Isabelle & Chazot, Sébastien & Richard-Ferroudji, Audrey & Caballero, Yvan, 2013. "Combining scenario workshops with modeling to assess future irrigation water demands," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 103-112.
    6. Nico Keilman, 2001. "Uncertain population forecasts," Nature, Nature, vol. 412(6846), pages 490-491, August.
    7. Stephenson, R. & Baschieri, A. & Clements, S. & Hennink, M. & Madise, N., 2006. "Contextual influences on the use of health facilities for childbirth in Africa," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 96(1), pages 84-93.
    8. Marisa A Zapata & Nikhil Kaza, 2015. "Radical uncertainty: scenario planning for futures," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 42(4), pages 754-770, July.
    9. Guangqing Chi, 2009. "Can knowledge improve population forecasts at subcounty levels?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(2), pages 405-427, May.
    10. Brian C. O'Neill & Deborah Balk & Melanie Brickman & Markos Ezra, 2001. "A Guide to Global Population Projections," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 4(8), pages 203-288.
    11. Garenne, Michel & Joseph, Veronique, 2002. "The Timing of the Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 1835-1843, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ruth Wouters & Bieke De Fraine & Maarten Simons, 2019. "What is at Stake in Deliberative Inquiry? A Review About a Deliberative Practice," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 193-217, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schenk, Katie D. & Kiragu, Karusa & Murugi, Julie & Sarna, Avina, 2014. "If you build it, will they come? A qualitative investigation into community barriers to accessing paediatric HIV services in Kenya," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 18-27.
    2. Patience A Afulani & Cheryl Moyer, 2016. "Explaining Disparities in Use of Skilled Birth Attendants in Developing Countries: A Conceptual Framework," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-16, April.
    3. Van Rijsbergen, Bart & D’Exelle, Ben, 2013. "Delivery Care in Tanzania: A Comparative Analysis of Use and Preferences," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 276-287.
    4. Gianni Corsetti & Marco Marsili, 2013. "Previsioni stocastiche della popolazione nell’ottica di un Istituto Nazionale di Statistica," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(2-3), pages 5-29.
    5. Gayen, Kaberi & Raeside, Robert, 2007. "Social networks, normative influence and health delivery in rural Bangladesh," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 65(5), pages 900-914, September.
    6. Das Gupta, Monica & Bongaarts, John & Cleland, John, 2011. "Population, poverty, and sustainable development : a review of the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5719, The World Bank.
    7. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    8. Kenneth Gillingham & William D. Nordhaus & David Anthoff & Geoffrey Blanford & Valentina Bosetti & Peter Christensen & Haewon McJeon & John Reilly & Paul Sztorc, 2015. "Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison," NBER Working Papers 21637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Lídia Farré, 2013. "The Role of Men in the Economic and Social Development of Women: Implications for Gender Equality," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 28(1), pages 22-51, February.
    10. Robert Stewart & Marie Urban & Samantha Duchscherer & Jason Kaufman & April Morton & Gautam Thakur & Jesse Piburn & Jessica Moehl, 2016. "A Bayesian machine learning model for estimating building occupancy from open source data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(3), pages 1929-1956, April.
    11. Shi, Qun & Tyers, Rod, 2005. "Global Demographic Change and Economic Performance: Applications of an Augmented GTAP-Dynamic," Conference papers 331414, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Lewis, Maureen & Pettersson, Gunilla, 2009. "Governance in health care delivery : raising performance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5074, The World Bank.
    13. Kusuma, Dian & Cohen, Jessica & McConnell, Margaret & Berman, Peter, 2016. "Can cash transfers improve determinants of maternal mortality? Evidence from the household and community programs in Indonesia," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 10-20.
    14. Vellore Arthi & James Fenske, 2018. "Polygamy and child mortality: Historical and modern evidence from Nigeria’s Igbo," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 97-141, March.
    15. Jui-Chung Kao & Hsiang-Yu Ma & Nein-Tsu Chiang & Rui-Hsin Kao & Cheng-Chung Cho, 2021. "How to Establish a Sustainable Organization? A Study on the Relationship between Social Work Characteristics and Innovativeness for Employees of Organizations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-18, June.
    16. Weber, Sabine & Landolt, Markus A. & Maier, Thomas & Mohler-Kuo, Meichun & Schnyder, Ulrich & Jud, Andreas, 2017. "Psychotherapeutic care for sexually-victimized children – Do service providers meet the need? Multilevel analysis," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 165-172.
    17. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
    18. Michael P. Cameron & William Cochrane, 2015. "Using Land-Use Modelling to Statistically Downscale Population Projections to Small Areas," Working Papers in Economics 15/12, University of Waikato.
    19. Kruk, Margaret E. & Rockers, Peter C. & Mbaruku, Godfrey & Paczkowski, Magdalena M. & Galea, Sandro, 2010. "Community and health system factors associated with facility delivery in rural Tanzania: A multilevel analysis," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(2-3), pages 209-216, October.
    20. Sushma Rajbanshi & Mohd Noor Norhayati & Nik Hussain Nik Hazlina, 2021. "Perceptions of Good-Quality Antenatal Care and Birthing Services among Postpartum Women in Nepal," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-13, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:syspar:v:29:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s11213-015-9365-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.