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Uncertain population forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Nico Keilman

    (University of Oslo)

Abstract

Traditional population forecasts made by statistical agencies do not quantify uncertainty. But demographers and statisticians have developed methods to calculate probabilistic forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Nico Keilman, 2001. "Uncertain population forecasts," Nature, Nature, vol. 412(6846), pages 490-491, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:412:y:2001:i:6846:d:10.1038_35087685
    DOI: 10.1038/35087685
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    2. Atsede D. Tegegne & Marianne Penker & Maria Wurzinger, 2016. "Participatory Demographic Scenarios Addressing Uncertainty and Transformative Change in Ethiopia," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 277-296, June.
    3. Torben M. Andersen & Marias H. Gestsson, 2021. "Annuitization and aggregate mortality risk," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(1), pages 79-99, March.
    4. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
    5. Wilson, Chris, 2002. "Forecast errors in global population projections: implications for food," 2002 Conference (46th), February 13-15, 2002, Canberra, Australia 125608, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    6. Torri, Tiziana & Vaupel, James W., 2012. "Forecasting life expectancy in an international context," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 519-531.
    7. Shi, Qun & Tyers, Rod, 2005. "Global Demographic Change and Economic Performance: Applications of an Augmented GTAP-Dynamic," Conference papers 331414, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Babatunde, Musibau Adetunji, 2006. "Trade Policy Reform, Regional Integration and Export Performance in the ECOWAS Sub-Region," Conference papers 331466, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Guy Abel & Jakub Bijak & Jonathan J. Forster & James Raymer & Peter W.F. Smith & Jackie S.T. Wong, 2013. "Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(43), pages 1187-1226.
    10. Adelina Comas-Herrera & Alessandra di Maio & Alessandro Pozzi & Concepció Patxot & Cristiano Gori & Heinz Rothgang & Joan Costa i Font & Linda Pickard & Raphael Wittenberg, "undated". "How Does Demography affect Long-Term Care Expenditures Projections?," Studies on the Spanish Economy 231, FEDEA.
    11. Chan, Ming Ming & Shi, Qun & Tyers, Rodney, 2005. "Global Demographic Change and Economic Performance: Implications for Agricultural Markets," 2005 Conference (49th), February 9-11, 2005, Coff's Harbour, Australia 137808, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

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