IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/sochwe/v57y2021i2d10.1007_s00355-021-01317-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ethnic distribution, effective power and conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Matija Kovacic

    (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice)

  • Claudio Zoli

    (University of Verona)

Abstract

This paper highlights the fact that different distributional aspects of ethnicity matter for conflict. We axiomatically derive a parametric class of indices of conflict potential obtained as the sum of each ethnic group’s relative power weighted by the probability of across group interactions. The power component of an extreme element of this class of indices is given by the Penrose–Banzhaf measure of relative power. This index combines in a non-linear way fractionalization, polarization and dominance. The empirical analysis verifies that it outperforms the existing indices of ethnic diversity in explaining ethnic conflict onset.

Suggested Citation

  • Matija Kovacic & Claudio Zoli, 2021. "Ethnic distribution, effective power and conflict," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 57(2), pages 257-299, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sochwe:v:57:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s00355-021-01317-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s00355-021-01317-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00355-021-01317-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00355-021-01317-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. José G. Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2005. "Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 796-816, June.
    2. Francesco Caselli & Wilbur John Coleman II, 2013. "On The Theory Of Ethnic Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 161-192, January.
    3. Esteban, Joan & Ray, Debraj, 1994. "On the Measurement of Polarization," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 819-851, July.
    4. Shmuel Nitzan, 2008. "Collective Rent Dissipation," Springer Books, in: Roger D. Congleton & Arye L. Hillman & Kai A. Konrad (ed.), 40 Years of Research on Rent Seeking 1, pages 309-321, Springer.
    5. Joan Esteban & Debraj Ray, 2011. "Linking Conflict to Inequality and Polarization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1345-1374, June.
    6. Joan Esteban, 2003. "Olson VS. Coase: Coalitional Worth in Conflict," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 339-357, December.
    7. Nils‐Christian Bormann & Lars‐Erik Cederman & Scott Gates & Benjamin A. T. Graham & Simon Hug & Kaare W. Strøm & Julian Wucherpfennig, 2019. "Power Sharing: Institutions, Behavior, and Peace," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(1), pages 84-100, January.
    8. Fearon, James D., 2018. "Cooperation, Conflict, and the Costs of Anarchy," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 523-559, July.
    9. Stergios Skaperdas, 1996. "Contest success functions (*)," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 7(2), pages 283-290.
    10. Klaus Desmet & Ignacio Ortuño-Ortín & Shlomo Weber, 2009. "Linguistic Diversity and Redistribution," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(6), pages 1291-1318, December.
    11. Satya Chakravarty & Bhargav Maharaj, 2011. "Measuring ethnic polarization," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 37(3), pages 431-452, September.
    12. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2002. "Why ethnic fractionalization? Polarization, ethnic conflict and growth," Economics Working Papers 660, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2002.
    13. Marcin Malawski, 2004. "‘‘Counting’’ power indices for games with a priori unions," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 125-140, April.
    14. King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2001. "Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 137-163, January.
    15. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 1998. "On Economic Causes of Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 563-573, October.
    16. Doyle, Michael W. & Sambanis, Nicholas, 2000. "International Peacebuilding: A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 94(4), pages 779-801, December.
    17. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    18. JoseG. Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2008. "Discrete Polarisation with an Application to the Determinants of Genocides," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1835-1865, November.
    19. Marcin Malawski, 2004. "``Counting'' power indices for games with a priori unions," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 56(2_2), pages 125-140, February.
    20. Paul Collier, 2001. "Implications of ethnic diversity," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 128-166.
    21. Walter Bossert & Conchita D'Ambrosio & Eliana La Ferrara, 2011. "A Generalized Index of Fractionalization," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(312), pages 723-750, October.
    22. HÃ¥vard Hegre & Nicholas Sambanis, 2006. "Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(4), pages 508-535, August.
    23. Fearon, James D, 2003. "Ethnic and Cultural Diversity by Country," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 195-222, June.
    24. Cederman, Lars-Erik & Girardin, Luc, 2007. "Beyond Fractionalization: Mapping Ethnicity onto Nationalist Insurgencies," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 101(1), pages 173-185, February.
    25. Fearon, James D. & Laitin, David D., 2003. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 75-90, February.
    26. Nils W. Metternich & Cassy Dorff & Max Gallop & Simon Weschle & Michael D. Ward, 2013. "Antigovernment Networks in Civil Conflicts: How Network Structures Affect Conflictual Behavior," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(4), pages 892-911, October.
    27. Dan S. Felsenthal & Moshé Machover, 1998. "The Measurement of Voting Power," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1489.
    28. Joan Esteban & Laura Mayoral & Debraj Ray, 2012. "Ethnicity and Conflict: An Empirical Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1310-1342, June.
    29. Guofu Tan & Ruqu Wang, 2010. "Coalition formation in the presence of continuing conflict," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 39(1), pages 273-299, March.
    30. Skaperdas, Stergios, 1998. "On the Formation of Alliances in Conflict and Contests," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 96(1-2), pages 25-42, July.
    31. Shapley, L. S. & Shubik, Martin, 1954. "A Method for Evaluating the Distribution of Power in a Committee System," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 787-792, September.
    32. Gerald Schneider & Nina Wiesehomeier, 2008. "Rules That Matter: Political Institutions and the Diversity—Conflict Nexus," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 45(2), pages 183-203, March.
    33. Sandeep Baliga & David O. Lucca & Tomas Sjöström, 2011. "Domestic Political Survival and International Conflict: Is Democracy Good for Peace?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(2), pages 458-486.
    34. Fearon, James D. & Kasara, Kimuli & Laitin, David D., 2007. "Ethnic Minority Rule and Civil War Onset," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 101(1), pages 187-193, February.
    35. Karl R. de Rouen JR & David Sobek, 2004. "The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 41(3), pages 303-320, May.
    36. Esteban, Joan & Ray, Debraj, 1999. "Conflict and Distribution," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 379-415, August.
    37. Satya R. Chakravarty & Bhargav Maharaj, 2014. "New contest success functions," Working Papers 340, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    38. Jose G. Montalvo & Marta Reynal‐Querol, 2008. "Discrete Polarisation with an Application to the Determinants of Genocides," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1835-1865, November.
    39. Jose Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2010. "Ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 123-143, April.
    40. Fearon, James D., 2018. "Cooperation, Conflict, and the Costs of Anarchy—CORRIGENDUM," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 759-759, July.
    41. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2004. "Ethnic polarization, potential conflict and civil wars," Economics Working Papers 770, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2005.
    42. Daron Acemoglu & Alexander Wolitzky, 2014. "Cycles of Conflict: An Economic Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1350-1367, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Napel & Dominik Welter, 2021. "Simple Voting Games and Cartel Damage Proportioning," Games, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-18, October.
    2. Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Paolo Melindi-Ghidi, 2023. "Elite-led revolutions," Working Papers hal-04225397, HAL.
    3. Sascha Kurz & Nicola Maaser & Stefan Napel & Matthias Weber, 2014. "Mostly Sunny: A Forecast of Tomorrow's Power Index Research," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-058/I, Tinbergen Institute.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kyle L. Marquardt & Yoshiko M. Herrera, 2015. "Ethnicity as a Variable: An Assessment of Measures and Data Sets of Ethnicity and Related Identities," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(3), pages 689-716, September.
    2. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    3. Christopher Blattman, 2009. "Civil War: A Review of Fifty Years of Research," Working Papers id:2231, eSocialSciences.
    4. Eva M. Buitrago & M. Ángeles Caraballo, 2022. "Measuring social diversity in economic literature: An overview for cross‐country studies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 880-934, September.
    5. Camille Laville, 2018. "The econometrical causal analysis of internal conflicts: The evolutions of a growing literature [L’analyse économétrique des conflits internes par l’approche causale : les évolutions d’une littérat," Working Papers hal-01940461, HAL.
    6. Victor Ginsburgh & Shlomo Weber, 2020. "The Economics of Language," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(2), pages 348-404, June.
    7. Elissaios Papyrakis & Pak Hung Mo, 2014. "Fractionalization, Polarization, And Economic Growth: Identifying The Transmission Channels," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 1204-1218, July.
    8. Camille Laville, 2018. "The econometrical causal analysis of internal conflicts: The evolutions of a growing literature [L’analyse économétrique des conflits internes par l’approche causale : les évolutions d’une littérat," CERDI Working papers hal-01940461, HAL.
    9. Ager, Philipp & Brückner, Markus, 2013. "Cultural diversity and economic growth: Evidence from the US during the age of mass migration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 76-97.
    10. Cemal Eren Arbatlı & Quamrul H. Ashraf & Oded Galor & Marc Klemp, 2020. "Diversity and Conflict," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(2), pages 727-797, March.
    11. Gustavo Javier Canavire-Bacarreza & Christopher Cotton & Michael Jetter & Alejandra Montoya-Agudelo, 2019. "Polarized education levels and civil unrest," Working Paper 1417, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    12. José G. Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2005. "Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 796-816, June.
    13. Gustavo Javier Canavire-Bacarreza & Michael Jetter & Alejandra Montoya-Agudelo, 2016. "Polarized Education Levels and Civil War," CESifo Working Paper Series 6267, CESifo.
    14. Giménez-Gómez, José-Manuel & Zergawu, Yitagesu-Zewdu, 2018. "The impact of social heterogeneity and commodity price shocks on civil conflicts," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 959-997.
    15. Abu-Bader, Suleiman & Ianchovichina, Elena, 2019. "Polarization, foreign military intervention, and civil conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    16. Jetter, Michael, 2016. "Peace, Terrorism, or Civil Conflict? Understanding the Decision of an Opposition Group," IZA Discussion Papers 9996, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Paul Castaneda Dower & Victor Ginsburgh & Shlomo Weber, 2014. "Colonial Legacy, Linguistic Disenfranchisement and the Civil Conflict in Sri Lanka," Working Papers 2014-011, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    18. Castañeda Dower, Paul & Ginsburgh, Victor & Weber, Shlomo, 2017. "Colonial legacy, polarization and linguistic disenfranchisement: The case of the Sri Lankan War," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 440-448.
    19. Joseph Flavian Gomes, 2020. "The health costs of ethnic distance: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 195-226, June.
    20. Tim C. Wegenast & Matthias Basedau, 2014. "Ethnic fractionalization, natural resources and armed conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(4), pages 432-457, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:sochwe:v:57:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s00355-021-01317-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.