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The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome

Author

Listed:
  • Karl R. de Rouen JR

    (School of Political Science and Communication, University of Canterbury, karl.derouen@canterbury.ac.nz)

  • David Sobek

    (Department of Political Science, Binghamton University (SUNY))

Abstract

Civil wars have several outcomes: government victory, rebel victory, truce, or treaty. This analysis models state capacity as a theoretical starting point to underpin hypotheses on duration and outcome. To test these hypotheses, multinomial logit and competing risk survival analysis are utilized. These methods allow for the examination of each outcome and its respective duration dynamics. Logit tells us what shapes the probability of each outcome, and hazard analysis identifies the factors that determine the time to each outcome. The models examine the years 1944 to 1997 and find that state capacity is involved in outcome and duration in at least two important ways. An effective state bureaucracy undermines the rebels, but a strong government army does not necessarily enhance the government cause. UN intervention decreases the probability of both government and rebel victory, while increasing the likelihood of a treaty or truce. In addition, rebels have a decreased probability of winning ethnic wars. Forest cover hinders rebels and treaties, while mountain cover tends to help rebels. African wars are harder for governments to win. African wars and ethnic wars are longer.

Suggested Citation

  • Karl R. de Rouen JR & David Sobek, 2004. "The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 41(3), pages 303-320, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:41:y:2004:i:3:p:303-320
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bodea, Cristina & Higashijima, Masaaki & Singh, Raju Jan, 2016. "Oil and Civil Conflict: Can Public Spending Have a Mitigation Effect?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-12.
    2. Matija Kovacic & Claudio Zoli, 2021. "Ethnic distribution, effective power and conflict," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 57(2), pages 257-299, August.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Davide Ticchi & Andrea Vindigni, 2010. "Persistence of Civil Wars," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(2-3), pages 664-676, 04-05.
    4. Roberti, Paolo, 2019. "State capacity and repression: A model of colonial rule," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 247-264.
    5. Matthew Costello, 2018. "Oil and Gas Rents and Civilian Violence in the Middle East and North Africa, 1990–2004: A Resource Curse, or Rentier Peace?," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Burton Lucy & Johnson Shane D. & Braithwaite Alex, 2017. "Potential uses of Numerical Simulation for the Modelling of Civil Conflict," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 1-39, January.
    7. repec:bpj:pepspp:v:18:y:2012:i:3:p:7:n:11 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Mauricio Cardenas & Didem Tuzemen, 2011. "Under-investment in state capacity: the role of inequality and political instability," Research Working Paper RWP 11-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

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