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Polarization, foreign military intervention, and civil conflict

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  • Abu-Bader, Suleiman
  • Ianchovichina, Elena

Abstract

This paper tests whether foreign military intervention helps explain conflict by intensifying polarization. Building on the seminal papers of Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) and Esteban and Ray (2011) and using a panel for 138 countries from 1960 to 2005, we confirm that ethnic polarization is a robust predictor of civil war. However, we also find that religious polarization is positively and significantly associated with civil conflict in the presence of foreign military intervention of non-humanitarian and non-neutral nature in the Middle East and North Africa, but not in the rest of the world. This type of intervention intensifies religious polarization through its effect on alienation, increasing the risk of high intensity conflict. The results provide an explanation for the high incidence of civil conflict in the Middle East and North Africa despite moderate polarization levels, obtained using the Reynal-Querol (2002) index, which is time-invariant and factors in only identity concerns.

Suggested Citation

  • Abu-Bader, Suleiman & Ianchovichina, Elena, 2019. "Polarization, foreign military intervention, and civil conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:141:y:2019:i:c:s0304387818302190
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.06.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Toke S. Aidt & Facundo Albornoz & Esther Hauk, 2019. "Foreign in influence and domestic policy: A survey," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1928, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Marius D. May, 2024. "Electing in the dark? Voting behavior in light of polarization," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(11), pages 1-29, November.
    3. Toke S. Aidt & Facundo Albornoz & Esther Hauk, 2021. "Foreign Influence and Domestic Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 426-487, June.
    4. Islam,Asif Mohammed & Lederman,Daniel, 2020. "Data Transparency and Long-Run Growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9493, The World Bank.
    5. Abu-Bader, Suleiman & Ianchovichina, Elena, 2019. "Polarization, foreign military intervention, and civil conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Sarah Langlotz, 2021. "Foreign Interventions and Community Cohesion in Times of Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 352, Households in Conflict Network.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Civil conflict; Polarization; Foreign intervention; Middle East and North Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution

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