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Time series of scientific growth in Spanish doctoral theses (1848–2009)

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio Fernández-Cano

    (University of Granada)

  • Manuel Torralbo

    (University of Córdoba)

  • Mónica Vallejo

    (University of Murcia)

Abstract

This article analyses scientific growth time series using data for Spanish doctoral theses from 1848 to 2009, retrieved from national databases and an in-depth archive search. Data are classified into subseries by historical periods. The analytical techniques employed range from visual analysis of deterministic graphs to curve-fitting with exponential smoothing and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average models. Forecasts are made using the best model. The main finding is that Spanish output of doctoral theses appears to fit a quasi-logistic growth model in line with Price’s predictions. An additional control variable termed year-on-year General Welfare is shown to modulate scientific growth, especially in the historical period from 1899 to 1939.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Fernández-Cano & Manuel Torralbo & Mónica Vallejo, 2012. "Time series of scientific growth in Spanish doctoral theses (1848–2009)," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 91(1), pages 15-36, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:91:y:2012:i:1:d:10.1007_s11192-011-0572-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-011-0572-x
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    1. Norma Salgado-Orellana & Emilio Berrocal de-Luna & Calixto Gutiérrez-Braojos, 2021. "A scientometric study of doctoral theses on the Roma in the Iberian Peninsula during the 1977–2018 period," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(1), pages 437-458, January.
    2. Rodrigo Sánchez-Jiménez & Iuliana Botezan & Jesús Barrasa-Rodríguez & Mari Carmen Suárez-Figueroa & Manuel Blázquez-Ochando, 2023. "Gender imbalance in doctoral education: an analysis of the Spanish university system (1977–2021)," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(4), pages 2577-2599, April.
    3. Iñaki Bildosola & Gaizka Garechana & Enara Zarrabeitia & Ernesto Cilleruelo, 2020. "Characterization of strategic emerging technologies: the case of big data," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 28(1), pages 45-60, March.
    4. Francisco Javier Ramos-Pardo & Pablo Sánchez-Antolín, 2017. "Production of educational theory doctoral theses in Spain (2001–2015)," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 112(3), pages 1615-1630, September.

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