2-Year or Not 2-Year? The Impact of Starting at Community College on Bachelor’s Degree Attainment

As college tuition rises nationwide, policy efforts to reduce these costs are increasingly focused at the 2-year level. However, it is not fully known whether increased access to college increases degree attainment. Compared to observationally equivalent peers who enroll in 4-year institutions, 2-year enrollees may face a decreased likelihood of BA receipt. Using data from the Education Longitudinal Study, this paper examines the long-term academic outcomes for full-time, bachelor’s degree intending students who initially enroll at public 2-year institutions. I examine the impact of initial community college enrollment on degree attainment, credit accumulation, and student loan debt using multiple identification strategies. I utilize a series of linear probability models (LPM) and an instrumental variable (IV) approach that exploits variation in the cost of and proximity to 2- and 4-year institutions. These strategies estimate the impact of initial community college enrollment by comparing identical students regarding demographics and academic ability, in which one student enrolls in a 2-year school and another in a 4-year institution. I find that initial 2-year enrollment reduces the likelihood of bachelor's degree attainment by 14 (LPM) to 35 (IV) percentage points but reduces student loan accrual by nearly $7500. Understanding the impact of initial 2-year enrollment is especially important as there is increased pressure on community colleges to play a role in providing pathways to BA receipt. Understanding the effect of community college enrollment can help secondary and postsecondary institutions and policymakers better provide pathways to baccalaureate attainment.