IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v96y2019i2d10.1007_s11069-019-03573-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Incorporating inland flooding into hurricane evacuation decision support modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Kun Yang

    (University of Delaware)

  • Rachel A. Davidson

    (University of Delaware)

  • Humberto Vergara

    (University of Oklahoma)

  • Randall L. Kolar

    (University of Oklahoma)

  • Kendra M. Dresback

    (University of Oklahoma)

  • Brian A. Colle

    (Stony Brook University, State University of New York)

  • Brian Blanton

    (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

  • Tricia Wachtendorf

    (University of Delaware)

  • Jennifer Trivedi

    (University of Delaware)

  • Linda K. Nozick

    (Cornell University)

Abstract

Formal engineering hurricane evacuation studies have not typically considered inland flooding explicitly, though it has been shown repeatedly to be a major cause of damage and loss of life in hurricanes. In addition, coastal flooding and strong winds are often treated in a decoupled manner, so that the correlation between them is not captured. The recently introduced Integrated Scenario-based Evacuation (ISE) computational framework offers one approach to achieving evacuation decision support based on a representation of the hazard that considers coastal flooding, inland flooding, and wind in an integrated manner. Using a case study application of the ISE framework for Hurricane Matthew (2016) approaching the North Carolina coast, we evaluate the influence of including inland flooding on the resulting recommended evacuation plan (where and when official evacuation orders are to be issued) and the plan’s performance in terms of risk reduction and travel time increase. Results provide insight into managing hurricane evacuation with consideration of inland flooding. They suggest that in some cases inland areas should be evacuated just as coastal areas are; the scenarios responsible for and the timing of inland flooding can differ from those for coastal areas; the response to the different hazards should be treated together as a system because they can interact in complex ways; and planning for inland flooding can help reduce risk substantially while not adding much to evacuee travel times because inland evacuees do not have to travel as far to safety.

Suggested Citation

  • Kun Yang & Rachel A. Davidson & Humberto Vergara & Randall L. Kolar & Kendra M. Dresback & Brian A. Colle & Brian Blanton & Tricia Wachtendorf & Jennifer Trivedi & Linda K. Nozick, 2019. "Incorporating inland flooding into hurricane evacuation decision support modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(2), pages 857-878, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:96:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03573-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03573-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-019-03573-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-019-03573-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pruttipong Apivatanagul & Rachel Davidson & Linda Nozick, 2012. "Bi-level optimization for risk-based regional hurricane evacuation planning," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(2), pages 567-588, January.
    2. Yi, Wenqi & Nozick, Linda & Davidson, Rachel & Blanton, Brian & Colle, Brian, 2017. "Optimization of the issuance of evacuation orders under evolving hurricane conditions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 285-304.
    3. Bas Kolen & Matthijs Kok & Ira Helsloot & Bob Maaskant, 2013. "EvacuAid: A Probabilistic Model to Determine the Expected Loss of Life for Different Mass Evacuation Strategies During Flood Threats," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(7), pages 1312-1333, July.
    4. Goerigk, Marc & Deghdak, Kaouthar & T’Kindt, Vincent, 2015. "A two-stage robustness approach to evacuation planning with buses," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 66-82.
    5. Cova, Thomas J. & Johnson, Justin P., 2003. "A network flow model for lane-based evacuation routing," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 579-604, August.
    6. Gino J. Lim & Mukesh Rungta & M. Reza Baharnemati, 2015. "Reliability analysis of evacuation routes under capacity uncertainty of road links," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 50-63, January.
    7. X Chen & F B Zhan, 2008. "Agent-based modelling and simulation of urban evacuation: relative effectiveness of simultaneous and staged evacuation strategies," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(1), pages 25-33, January.
    8. Tao Yao & Supreet Mandala & Byung Chung, 2009. "Evacuation Transportation Planning Under Uncertainty: A Robust Optimization Approach," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 171-189, June.
    9. Shahriar Afandizadeh & Arash Jahangiri & Navid Kalantari, 2013. "Identifying the optimal configuration of one-way and two-way streets for contraflow operation during an emergency evacuation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 1315-1334, December.
    10. Michael Lindell & Carla Prater, 2007. "A hurricane evacuation management decision support system (EMDSS)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 40(3), pages 627-634, March.
    11. Ng, ManWo & Waller, S. Travis, 2010. "Reliable evacuation planning via demand inflation and supply deflation," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1086-1094, November.
    12. Lindell, Michael K., 2008. "EMBLEM2: An empirically based large scale evacuation time estimate model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 140-154, January.
    13. Kevin J.E. Walsh & John L. McBride & Philip J. Klotzbach & Sethurathinam Balachandran & Suzana J. Camargo & Greg Holland & Thomas R. Knutson & James P. Kossin & Tsz‐cheung Lee & Adam Sobel & Masato Su, 2016. "Tropical cyclones and climate change," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 65-89, January.
    14. Li, Anna C.Y. & Nozick, Linda & Xu, Ningxiong & Davidson, Rachel, 2012. "Shelter location and transportation planning under hurricane conditions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 715-729.
    15. Jeffrey Czajkowski & Kevin Simmons & Daniel Sutter, 2011. "An analysis of coastal and inland fatalities in landfalling US hurricanes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(3), pages 1513-1531, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fan Jiang & Ning Ding & Jiguang Shi & Zhenyu Fan, 2022. "Verify the Validity of Guidance Sign in Buildings: A New Method Based on Mixed Reality with Eye Tracking Device," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Vishal Singh & Anil Kumar Lohani & Sanjay Kumar Jain, 2022. "Reconstruction of extreme flood events by performing integrated real-time and probabilistic flood modeling in the Periyar river basin, Southern India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(3), pages 2433-2463, July.
    3. Bayram, Vedat & Yaman, Hande, 2024. "A joint demand and supply management approach to large scale urban evacuation planning: Evacuate or shelter-in-place, staging and dynamic resource allocation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 313(1), pages 171-191.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rachel A. Davidson & Linda K. Nozick & Tricia Wachtendorf & Brian Blanton & Brian Colle & Randall L. Kolar & Sarah DeYoung & Kendra M. Dresback & Wenqi Yi & Kun Yang & Nicholas Leonardo, 2020. "An Integrated Scenario Ensemble‐Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 1—Decision Support System," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 97-116, January.
    2. Rambha, Tarun & Nozick, Linda K. & Davidson, Rachel & Yi, Wenqi & Yang, Kun, 2021. "A stochastic optimization model for staged hospital evacuation during hurricanes," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Pruttipong Apivatanagul & Rachel Davidson & Linda Nozick, 2012. "Bi-level optimization for risk-based regional hurricane evacuation planning," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(2), pages 567-588, January.
    4. Xiaozheng He & Hong Zheng & Srinivas Peeta & Yongfu Li, 2018. "Network Design Model to Integrate Shelter Assignment with Contraflow Operations in Emergency Evacuation Planning," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 1027-1050, December.
    5. Gino J. Lim & M. Reza Baharnemati & Seon Jin Kim, 2016. "An optimization approach for real time evacuation reroute planning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 238(1), pages 375-388, March.
    6. Bian Liang & Dapeng Yang & Xinghong Qin & Teresa Tinta, 2019. "A Risk-Averse Shelter Location and Evacuation Routing Assignment Problem in an Uncertain Environment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-28, October.
    7. Esposito Amideo, A. & Scaparra, M.P. & Kotiadis, K., 2019. "Optimising shelter location and evacuation routing operations: The critical issues," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 279-295.
    8. Kimms, A. & Maiwald, M., 2018. "Bi-objective safe and resilient urban evacuation planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(3), pages 1122-1136.
    9. Vedat Bayram & Hande Yaman, 2018. "Shelter Location and Evacuation Route Assignment Under Uncertainty: A Benders Decomposition Approach," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(2), pages 416-436, March.
    10. Gino Lim & M. Baharnemati & Seon Kim, 2016. "An optimization approach for real time evacuation reroute planning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 238(1), pages 375-388, March.
    11. Bayram, Vedat & Yaman, Hande, 2024. "A joint demand and supply management approach to large scale urban evacuation planning: Evacuate or shelter-in-place, staging and dynamic resource allocation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 313(1), pages 171-191.
    12. Zhengfeng Huang & Pengjun Zheng & Gang Ren & Yang Cheng & Bin Ran, 2016. "Simultaneous optimization of evacuation route and departure time based on link-congestion mitigation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(1), pages 575-599, August.
    13. Lakshay, & Bolia, Nomesh B., 2020. "Robust scheduling for large scale evacuation planning," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    14. Alizadeh, Morteza & Amiri-Aref, Mehdi & Mustafee, Navonil & Matilal, Sumohon, 2019. "A robust stochastic Casualty Collection Points location problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(3), pages 965-983.
    15. Goerigk, Marc & Deghdak, Kaouthar & Heßler, Philipp, 2014. "A comprehensive evacuation planning model and genetic solution algorithm," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 82-97.
    16. Thomas J. Cova & Philip E. Dennison & Frank A. Drews, 2011. "Modeling Evacuate versus Shelter-in-Place Decisions in Wildfires," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(10), pages 1-26, September.
    17. Wang, Qingyi & Wallace, Stein W., 2022. "Non-compliance in transit-based evacuation pick-up point assignments," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PB).
    18. Thomas J. Cova & Philip E. Dennison & Dapeng Li & Frank A. Drews & Laura K. Siebeneck & Michael K. Lindell, 2017. "Warning Triggers in Environmental Hazards: Who Should Be Warned to Do What and When?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 601-611, April.
    19. Lindell, Michael K., 2008. "EMBLEM2: An empirically based large scale evacuation time estimate model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 140-154, January.
    20. Rambha, Tarun & Nozick, Linda K. & Davidson, Rachel, 2021. "Modeling hurricane evacuation behavior using a dynamic discrete choice framework," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 75-100.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:96:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03573-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.