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EMBLEM2: An empirically based large scale evacuation time estimate model

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  • Lindell, Michael K.

Abstract

This article describes a simple, rapid method for calculating evacuation time estimates (ETEs) that is compatible with research findings about evacuees' behavior in hurricanes. This revision of an earlier version of the empirically based large scale evacuation time estimate method (EMBLEM) uses empirical data derived from behavioral surveys and allows local emergency managers to calculate ETEs by specifying four evacuation route system parameters, 16 behavioral parameters, and five evacuation scope/timing parameters. EMBLEM2 is implemented within a menu-driven evacuation management decision support system (EMDSS) that local emergency managers can use to calculate ETEs and conduct sensitivity analyses to examine the effects of plausible variation in the parameters. In addition, they can run EMDSS in real time (less than 10Â min of run time) to recalculate ETEs while monitoring an approaching hurricane. The article provides an example using EMDSS to calculate ETEs for San Patricio County Texas and discusses directions for further improvements of the model.

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  • Lindell, Michael K., 2008. "EMBLEM2: An empirically based large scale evacuation time estimate model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 140-154, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:42:y:2008:i:1:p:140-154
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    1. Thomas J. Cova & Philip E. Dennison & Dapeng Li & Frank A. Drews & Laura K. Siebeneck & Michael K. Lindell, 2017. "Warning Triggers in Environmental Hazards: Who Should Be Warned to Do What and When?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 601-611, April.
    2. Shih-Kai Huang & Hao-Che Wu & Michael K. Lindell & Hung-Lung Wei & Charles D. Samuelson, 2017. "Perceptions, behavioral expectations, and implementation timing for response actions in a hurricane emergency," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 533-558, August.
    3. Stepanov, Alexander & Smith, James MacGregor, 2009. "Multi-objective evacuation routing in transportation networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(2), pages 435-446, October.
    4. Praveen Maghelal & Xiangyu Li & Walter Gillis Peacock, 2017. "Highway congestion during evacuation: examining the household’s choice of number of vehicles to evacuate," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(3), pages 1399-1411, July.
    5. Shen, Jiayun & Murray-Tuite, Pamela & Wernstedt, Kris & Guikema, Seth, 2024. "Estimating pre-impact and post-impact evacuation behaviors – An empirical study of hurricane Ida in coastal Louisiana and Mississippi," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    6. Ben-Tal, Aharon & Chung, Byung Do & Mandala, Supreet Reddy & Yao, Tao, 2011. "Robust optimization for emergency logistics planning: Risk mitigation in humanitarian relief supply chains," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1177-1189, September.
    7. Hao-Che Wu & Michael Lindell & Carla Prater, 2015. "Strike probability judgments and protective action recommendations in a dynamic hurricane tracking task," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(1), pages 355-380, October.
    8. Adam Pel & Michiel Bliemer & Serge Hoogendoorn, 2012. "A review on travel behaviour modelling in dynamic traffic simulation models for evacuations," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 97-123, January.
    9. Yulei Song & Xuedong Yan, 2016. "A Method for Formulizing Disaster Evacuation Demand Curves Based on SI Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-21, October.
    10. Guy Wachtel & Jan-Dirk Schmöcker & Yuval Hadas & Yuhan Gao & Oren E Nahum & Boaz Ben-Moshe, 2021. "Planning for tourist urban evacuation routes: A framework for improving the data collection and evacuation processes," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(5), pages 1108-1125, June.
    11. Uchida, Kenetsu, 2012. "A model evaluating effect of disaster warning issuance conditions on “cry wolf syndrome” in the case of a landslide," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 530-537.
    12. Yunyue He & Zhong Liu & Jianmai Shi & Yishan Wang & Jiaming Zhang & Jinyuan Liu, 2015. "K-Shortest-Path-Based Evacuation Routing with Police Resource Allocation in City Transportation Networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-23, July.
    13. Madireddy, Manini & Kumara, Soundar & Medeiros, D.J. & Shankar, Venky N., 2015. "Leveraging social networks for efficient hurricane evacuation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 199-212.
    14. Feng, Xinhang & Jiang, Yanli & Gai, Wenmei, 2024. "Rural community response to accidental toxic gas release: An individual emergency response model during self-organized evacuations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    15. Yang, Xia & Ban, Xuegang (Jeff) & Mitchell, John, 2018. "Modeling multimodal transportation network emergency evacuation considering evacuees’ cooperative behavior," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 114(PB), pages 380-397.
    16. Rachel A. Davidson & Linda K. Nozick & Tricia Wachtendorf & Brian Blanton & Brian Colle & Randall L. Kolar & Sarah DeYoung & Kendra M. Dresback & Wenqi Yi & Kun Yang & Nicholas Leonardo, 2020. "An Integrated Scenario Ensemble‐Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 1—Decision Support System," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 97-116, January.
    17. Hao‐Che Wu & Michael K. Lindell & Carla S. Prater & Charles D. Samuelson, 2014. "Effects of Track and Threat Information on Judgments of Hurricane Strike Probability," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(6), pages 1025-1039, June.
    18. Adam E. Clark & Ronald R. Hagelman & Richard W. Dixon, 2020. "Modeling a contraflow evacuation method for tropical cyclone evacuations in Nueces County, Texas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2757-2786, September.
    19. José Marrero & Alicia García & Angeles Llinares & Servando Cruz-Reyna & Silvia Ramos & Ramón Ortiz, 2013. "Virtual tools for volcanic crisis management, and evacuation decision support: applications to El Chichón volcano (Chiapas, México)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 955-980, September.
    20. Zhenhan Du & Qiming Zhong & Shengyao Mei & Yibo Shan, 2023. "Risk assessment of dammed lakes in China based on Bayesian network," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(1), pages 129-161, January.
    21. Herrera-Restrepo, Oscar & Triantis, Konstantinos & Trainor, Joseph & Murray-Tuite, Pamela & Edara, Praveen, 2016. "A multi-perspective dynamic network performance efficiency measurement of an evacuation: A dynamic network-DEA approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 45-59.
    22. Kun Yang & Rachel A. Davidson & Humberto Vergara & Randall L. Kolar & Kendra M. Dresback & Brian A. Colle & Brian Blanton & Tricia Wachtendorf & Jennifer Trivedi & Linda K. Nozick, 2019. "Incorporating inland flooding into hurricane evacuation decision support modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(2), pages 857-878, March.
    23. Michael Lindell & Jung Kang & Carla Prater, 2011. "The logistics of household hurricane evacuation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(3), pages 1093-1109, September.
    24. Rambha, Tarun & Nozick, Linda K. & Davidson, Rachel, 2021. "Modeling hurricane evacuation behavior using a dynamic discrete choice framework," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 75-100.
    25. Thomas J. Cova & Philip E. Dennison & Frank A. Drews, 2011. "Modeling Evacuate versus Shelter-in-Place Decisions in Wildfires," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(10), pages 1-26, September.

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