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South African droughts and decadal variability

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  • J. Malherbe
  • B. Dieppois
  • P. Maluleke
  • M. Staden
  • D. Pillay

Abstract

We explore the historical occurrence of extensive droughts over South Africa within the context of decadal climate variability. A Standardized Precipitation Index dataset is developed and used to assess the spatial extent of droughts in South Africa for the period 1920–2014. The most extensive droughts over the period at various time scales are identified and discussed. Results of a wavelet analysis are also presented towards identifying statistically significant regional climate variation with which the occurrence of droughts is associated. The occurrence of drought with respect to the El Niño Southern Oscillation and decadal climate variability is also considered. Significant associations between short-term droughts and decadal variability are pointed out. An overview of global sea surface temperature and Southern Hemisphere sea-level pressure associations with three prominent scales of multi-year climate variability is given. Dry epochs at the most prominent time scales are shown to be significantly negatively related to the Southern Annular Mode and associated sea surface temperature anomalies in the mid-to-high southern latitudes. Relations with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Inter-Decadal Pacific Oscillation and ENSO, which are all associated with a Southern Annular Mode of opposite sign, are also highlighted. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Suggested Citation

  • J. Malherbe & B. Dieppois & P. Maluleke & M. Staden & D. Pillay, 2016. "South African droughts and decadal variability," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(1), pages 657-681, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:80:y:2016:i:1:p:657-681
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1989-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sheng Yue & ChunYuan Wang, 2004. "The Mann-Kendall Test Modified by Effective Sample Size to Detect Trend in Serially Correlated Hydrological Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(3), pages 201-218, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Masupha, Teboho E. & Moeletsi, Mokhele E., 2020. "The use of Water Requirement Satisfaction Index for assessing agricultural drought on rain-fed maize, in the Luvuvhu River catchment, South Africa," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    2. Valerie Graw & Gohar Ghazaryan & Karen Dall & Andoni Delgado Gómez & Ayman Abdel-Hamid & Andries Jordaan & Ruben Piroska & Joachim Post & Jörg Szarzynski & Yvonne Walz & Olena Dubovyk, 2017. "Drought Dynamics and Vegetation Productivity in Different Land Management Systems of Eastern Cape, South Africa—A Remote Sensing Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-19, September.

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