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Seismic hazards along Ecuador, Perú and northern Chile (South America)

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  • Claudia Prezzi
  • Virginia Silbergleit

Abstract

The western coast of South America is one of the most seismogenic zones of the world, due to the subduction of the oceanic Nazca Plate below South America. The spatial distribution of large-magnitude earthquakes or of their rupture areas indicates the existence of other large zones which could produce a large-magnitude earthquake in the future. The aim of this work was to study the historic seismicity along the coast of Ecuador, Perú and northern Chile through the analysis of the vertical stress anomalies and the application of the statistical method of Gumbel, with the major goal of estimating the probability of the occurrence of a large-magnitude earthquake during the actual decade. Earthquakes with Richter magnitude M ≥ 7 registered for the time intervals: 1541–1878 and 1895–2014 are considered. Our statistical analysis suggests the possible occurrence of a major earthquake in the study zone with a Richter magnitude ≥8.4/9.0. Taking into account the vertical stress anomalies detected in this study, it is considered that “the Arica seismic gap” identified in northern Chile could be the locus of the occurrence of such a major earthquake. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Claudia Prezzi & Virginia Silbergleit, 2015. "Seismic hazards along Ecuador, Perú and northern Chile (South America)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 1159-1175, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:79:y:2015:i:2:p:1159-1175
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1900-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Virginia Silbergleit & Claudia Prezzi, 2012. "Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(2), pages 445-458, June.
    2. Evgueni Kulikov & Alexander Rabinovich & Richard Thomson, 2005. "Estimation of Tsunami Risk for the Coasts of Peru and Northern Chile," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 35(2), pages 185-209, June.
    3. Gavin P. Hayes & Matthew W. Herman & William D. Barnhart & Kevin P. Furlong & Sebástian Riquelme & Harley M. Benz & Eric Bergman & Sergio Barrientos & Paul S. Earle & Sergey Samsonov, 2014. "Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake," Nature, Nature, vol. 512(7514), pages 295-298, August.
    4. Bernd Schurr & Günter Asch & Sebastian Hainzl & Jonathan Bedford & Andreas Hoechner & Mauro Palo & Rongjiang Wang & Marcos Moreno & Mitja Bartsch & Yong Zhang & Onno Oncken & Frederik Tilmann & Torste, 2014. "Gradual unlocking of plate boundary controlled initiation of the 2014 Iquique earthquake," Nature, Nature, vol. 512(7514), pages 299-302, August.
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