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Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence

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  • Virginia Silbergleit
  • Claudia Prezzi

Abstract

In this work, we consider historical earthquakes registered in Chile (from 1900 up to 2010) with epicenters located between 19 and 40°S latitude, in order to evaluate the probabilities of the occurrence of strong earthquakes along Chile in the near future. Applying Gumbel’s technique of first asymptotic distribution, Wemelsfelder’s theory and Gutenberg–Richter relationship, we estimate that during the next decade strong earthquakes with Richter magnitudes larger than 8.7–8.9 could occur along Chile. According to our analysis, probabilities for the occurrence of such a strong earthquake range between 64 and 46% respectively. Particularly in the very well known “seismic gap” of Arica, a convergence motion between Nazca and South American plates of 77–78 mm/year represents more than 10 m of displacement accumulated since the last big interplate subduction earthquake in this area over 134 years ago. Therefore, this area already has the potential for an earthquake of magnitude >8. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Virginia Silbergleit & Claudia Prezzi, 2012. "Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(2), pages 445-458, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:62:y:2012:i:2:p:445-458
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0086-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Evgueni Kulikov & Alexander Rabinovich & Richard Thomson, 2005. "Estimation of Tsunami Risk for the Coasts of Peru and Northern Chile," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 35(2), pages 185-209, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Claudia Prezzi & Virginia Silbergleit, 2015. "Seismic hazards along Ecuador, Perú and northern Chile (South America)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 1159-1175, November.
    2. Karen E Engel, 2016. "Talcahuano, Chile, in the wake of the 2010 disaster: A vulnerable middle?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 1057-1081, January.
    3. Karen E Engel, 2016. "Talcahuano, Chile, in the wake of the 2010 disaster: A vulnerable middle?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 1057-1081, January.

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