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Months-long seismicity transients preceding the 2023 MW 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, Türkiye

Author

Listed:
  • G. Kwiatek

    (Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)

  • P. Martínez-Garzón

    (Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)

  • D. Becker

    (Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)

  • G. Dresen

    (Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
    University of Potsdam)

  • F. Cotton

    (Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
    University of Potsdam)

  • G. C. Beroza

    (Stanford University)

  • D. Acarel

    (Gebze Technical University)

  • S. Ergintav

    (Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Boğaziçi University)

  • M. Bohnhoff

    (Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
    Free University Berlin, Institute of Geological Sciences)

Abstract

Short term prediction of earthquake magnitude, time, and location is currently not possible. In some cases, however, documented observations have been retrospectively considered as precursory. Here we present seismicity transients starting approx. 8 months before the 2023 MW 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake on the East Anatolian Fault Zone. Seismicity is composed of isolated spatio-temporal clusters within 65 km of future epicentre, displaying non-Poissonian inter-event time statistics, magnitude correlations and low Gutenberg-Richter b-values. Local comparable seismic transients have not been observed, at least since 2014. Close to epicentre and during the weeks prior to its rupture, only scarce seismic activity was observed. The trends of seismic preparatory attributes for this earthquake follow those previously documented in both laboratory stick-slip tests and numerical models of heterogeneous earthquake rupture affecting multiple fault segments. More comprehensive earthquake monitoring together with long-term seismic records may facilitate recognizing earthquake preparation processes from other regional deformation transients.

Suggested Citation

  • G. Kwiatek & P. Martínez-Garzón & D. Becker & G. Dresen & F. Cotton & G. C. Beroza & D. Acarel & S. Ergintav & M. Bohnhoff, 2023. "Months-long seismicity transients preceding the 2023 MW 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, Türkiye," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-42419-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42419-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bernd Schurr & Günter Asch & Sebastian Hainzl & Jonathan Bedford & Andreas Hoechner & Mauro Palo & Rongjiang Wang & Marcos Moreno & Mitja Bartsch & Yong Zhang & Onno Oncken & Frederik Tilmann & Torste, 2014. "Gradual unlocking of plate boundary controlled initiation of the 2014 Iquique earthquake," Nature, Nature, vol. 512(7514), pages 299-302, August.
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