IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v14y2023i1d10.1038_s41467-023-42419-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Months-long seismicity transients preceding the 2023 MW 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, Türkiye

Author

Listed:
  • G. Kwiatek

    (Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)

  • P. Martínez-Garzón

    (Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)

  • D. Becker

    (Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)

  • G. Dresen

    (Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
    University of Potsdam)

  • F. Cotton

    (Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
    University of Potsdam)

  • G. C. Beroza

    (Stanford University)

  • D. Acarel

    (Gebze Technical University)

  • S. Ergintav

    (Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Boğaziçi University)

  • M. Bohnhoff

    (Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
    Free University Berlin, Institute of Geological Sciences)

Abstract

Short term prediction of earthquake magnitude, time, and location is currently not possible. In some cases, however, documented observations have been retrospectively considered as precursory. Here we present seismicity transients starting approx. 8 months before the 2023 MW 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake on the East Anatolian Fault Zone. Seismicity is composed of isolated spatio-temporal clusters within 65 km of future epicentre, displaying non-Poissonian inter-event time statistics, magnitude correlations and low Gutenberg-Richter b-values. Local comparable seismic transients have not been observed, at least since 2014. Close to epicentre and during the weeks prior to its rupture, only scarce seismic activity was observed. The trends of seismic preparatory attributes for this earthquake follow those previously documented in both laboratory stick-slip tests and numerical models of heterogeneous earthquake rupture affecting multiple fault segments. More comprehensive earthquake monitoring together with long-term seismic records may facilitate recognizing earthquake preparation processes from other regional deformation transients.

Suggested Citation

  • G. Kwiatek & P. Martínez-Garzón & D. Becker & G. Dresen & F. Cotton & G. C. Beroza & D. Acarel & S. Ergintav & M. Bohnhoff, 2023. "Months-long seismicity transients preceding the 2023 MW 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, Türkiye," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-42419-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42419-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42419-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-023-42419-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernd Schurr & Günter Asch & Sebastian Hainzl & Jonathan Bedford & Andreas Hoechner & Mauro Palo & Rongjiang Wang & Marcos Moreno & Mitja Bartsch & Yong Zhang & Onno Oncken & Frederik Tilmann & Torste, 2014. "Gradual unlocking of plate boundary controlled initiation of the 2014 Iquique earthquake," Nature, Nature, vol. 512(7514), pages 299-302, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bo Ma & Jacob Geersen & Dietrich Lange & Dirk Klaeschen & Ingo Grevemeyer & Eduardo Contreras-Reyes & Florian Petersen & Michael Riedel & Yueyang Xia & Anne M. Tréhu & Heidrun Kopp, 2022. "Megathrust reflectivity reveals the updip limit of the 2014 Iquique earthquake rupture," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. J. Ruiz & M. Fuentes & S. Riquelme & J. Campos & A. Cisternas, 2015. "Numerical simulation of tsunami runup in northern Chile based on non-uniform k −2 slip distributions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 1177-1198, November.
    3. Ignacia Calisto & Marisella Ortega & Matthew Miller, 2015. "Observed and modeled tsunami signals compared by using different rupture models of the April 1, 2014, Iquique earthquake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(1), pages 397-408, October.
    4. Juan González & Gabriel González & Rafael Aránguiz & Diego Melgar & Natalia Zamora & Mahesh N. Shrivastava & Ranjit Das & Patricio A. Catalán & Rodrigo Cienfuegos, 2020. "A hybrid deterministic and stochastic approach for tsunami hazard assessment in Iquique, Chile," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(1), pages 231-254, January.
    5. José Drápela & Ignacia Calisto & Marcos Moreno, 2021. "Locking-derived tsunami scenarios for the most recent megathrust earthquakes in Chile: implications for tsunami hazard assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 35-52, May.
    6. Claudia Prezzi & Virginia Silbergleit, 2015. "Seismic hazards along Ecuador, Perú and northern Chile (South America)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 1159-1175, November.
    7. Ignacio A. Solís & Pedro Gazmuri, 2017. "Evaluation of the risk and the evacuation policy in the case of a tsunami in the city of Iquique, Chile," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 503-532, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-42419-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.