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Decision Making for Extreme Events: Modeling Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies to Aid Mitigation and Response Planning

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  • Nicholas Santella
  • Laura J. Steinberg
  • Kyle Parks

Abstract

Recent tragedies such as Hurricane Katrina, 9/11, and the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake have revealed a need for methods to evaluate and plan for the impact of extreme events on critical infrastructure. In particular, awareness has been raised of the threat that a major disruption will lead to cascading failures that cross boundaries between interdependent infrastructure sectors, greatly magnifying human and economic impacts. To assist in planning for such extreme events, researchers are developing modeling tools to aid in making decisions about how best to protect critical infrastructures. We present some of the capabilities of this modeling approach as well as some of the challenges faced in developing such applications based on our experience with the Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIPDSS) model, developed for use by the Department of Homeland Security. A set of disruptions to road and telecommunication infrastructures is implemented in CIPDSS and the modeled disruptions to the original infrastructure as well as cascading effects on other infrastructure sectors are discussed. These simulations provide insights into the potential of this approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Santella & Laura J. Steinberg & Kyle Parks, 2009. "Decision Making for Extreme Events: Modeling Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies to Aid Mitigation and Response Planning," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 26(4), pages 409-422, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:revpol:v:26:y:2009:i:4:p:409-422
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1541-1338.2009.00392.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Samiul Hasan & Greg Foliente, 2015. "Modeling infrastructure system interdependencies and socioeconomic impacts of failure in extreme events: emerging R&D challenges," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(3), pages 2143-2168, September.
    2. Quan Mao & Nan Li, 2018. "Assessment of the impact of interdependencies on the resilience of networked critical infrastructure systems," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(1), pages 315-337, August.
    3. Hong, Liu & Yan, Yongze & Ouyang, Min & Tian, Hui & He, Xiaozheng, 2017. "Vulnerability effects of passengers' intermodal transfer distance preference and subway expansion on complementary urban public transportation systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 58-72.
    4. Sisi Meng & Pallab Mozumder, 2021. "Hurricane Sandy: Damages, Disruptions and Pathways to Recovery," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 223-247, July.
    5. He, Xian & Cha, Eun Jeong, 2018. "Modeling the damage and recovery of interdependent critical infrastructure systems from natural hazards," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 162-175.
    6. Gao, Guibing & Wang, Junshen & Yue, Wenhui & Ou, Wenchu, 2020. "Structural-vulnerability assessment of reconfigurable manufacturing system based on universal generating function," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    7. Wang, Shuliang & Zhang, Jianhua & Yue, Xin, 2018. "Multiple robustness assessment method for understanding structural and functional characteristics of the power network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 261-270.
    8. Liu, Xing & Fang, Yi-Ping & Zio, Enrico, 2021. "A Hierarchical Resilience Enhancement Framework for Interdependent Critical Infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    9. Ouyang, Min & Dueñas-Osorio, Leonardo, 2011. "An approach to design interface topologies across interdependent urban infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(11), pages 1462-1473.
    10. Hong, Liu & Ouyang, Min & Peeta, Srinivas & He, Xiaozheng & Yan, Yongze, 2015. "Vulnerability assessment and mitigation for the Chinese railway system under floods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 58-68.
    11. Ouyang, Min, 2014. "Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 43-60.

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