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Impacts of sea level rise on future storm-induced coastal inundations over massachusetts coast

Author

Listed:
  • Changsheng Chen

    (University of Massachusetts)

  • Zhaolin Lin

    (University of Massachusetts)

  • Robert C. Beardsley

    (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

  • Tom Shyka

    (Northeastern Regional Association of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems (NERACOOS))

  • Yu Zhang

    (Shanghai Ocean University)

  • Qichun Xu

    (University of Massachusetts)

  • Jianhua Qi

    (University of Massachusetts)

  • Huichan Lin

    (University of Massachusetts)

  • Danya Xu

    (Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory)

Abstract

Hurricanes (tropical cyclones) and nor'easters (extratropical cyclones) are two major storm systems for flood risk over the Massachusetts coast. Severe coastal inundation usually happens when wind-induced waves and storm surges coincide with high tides. A Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS) was established and placed into the 24/7 forecast operations starting in 2007. Using a well-validated “end to end” FVCOM inundation model of NECOFS, we examined the impact of climate change-induced sea-level rise (SLR) on the future extratropical storms-induced coastal inundation over the Massachusetts coast. The assessment was done by making the model experiments to project the storm-induced inundation over the coastal areas of Scituate and Boston Harbors with different SLR scenarios under a hundred-year storm condition. The results suggest that with sustained SLR, the northeastern US coast will be vulnerable more severely to wave runup-induced splashing/overtopping than wind-induced storm surges. This finding is consistent with the change in the intensity of storm-generated surface waves in the last decade. The model also suggests that the responses of surge and surface waves to SLR are fully nonlinear. The assessment of the impacts of SLR on the future storm-induced coastal inundation should be investigated with a model including wave-current interactions.

Suggested Citation

  • Changsheng Chen & Zhaolin Lin & Robert C. Beardsley & Tom Shyka & Yu Zhang & Qichun Xu & Jianhua Qi & Huichan Lin & Danya Xu, 2021. "Impacts of sea level rise on future storm-induced coastal inundations over massachusetts coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 375-399, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:106:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04467-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04467-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nick Taylor & Jennifer Irish & Ikpoto Udoh & Matthew Bilskie & Scott Hagen, 2015. "Development and uncertainty quantification of hurricane surge response functions for hazard assessment in coastal bays," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1103-1123, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karine Bastos Leal & Luís Eduardo de Souza Robaina & André de Souza De Lima, 2022. "Coastal impacts of storm surges on a changing climate: a global bibliometric analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1455-1476, November.
    2. Karine Bastos Leal & Luís Eduardo de Souza Robaina & Thales Sehn Körting & João Luiz Nicolodi & Júlia Dasso Costa & Vitória Gonçalves Souza, 2024. "Identification of coastal natural disasters using official databases to provide support for the coastal management: the case of Santa Catarina, Brazil," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(12), pages 11465-11482, September.

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