IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v106y2021i1d10.1007_s11069-020-04467-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of sea level rise on future storm-induced coastal inundations over massachusetts coast

Author

Listed:
  • Changsheng Chen

    (University of Massachusetts)

  • Zhaolin Lin

    (University of Massachusetts)

  • Robert C. Beardsley

    (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

  • Tom Shyka

    (Northeastern Regional Association of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems (NERACOOS))

  • Yu Zhang

    (Shanghai Ocean University)

  • Qichun Xu

    (University of Massachusetts)

  • Jianhua Qi

    (University of Massachusetts)

  • Huichan Lin

    (University of Massachusetts)

  • Danya Xu

    (Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory)

Abstract

Hurricanes (tropical cyclones) and nor'easters (extratropical cyclones) are two major storm systems for flood risk over the Massachusetts coast. Severe coastal inundation usually happens when wind-induced waves and storm surges coincide with high tides. A Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS) was established and placed into the 24/7 forecast operations starting in 2007. Using a well-validated “end to end” FVCOM inundation model of NECOFS, we examined the impact of climate change-induced sea-level rise (SLR) on the future extratropical storms-induced coastal inundation over the Massachusetts coast. The assessment was done by making the model experiments to project the storm-induced inundation over the coastal areas of Scituate and Boston Harbors with different SLR scenarios under a hundred-year storm condition. The results suggest that with sustained SLR, the northeastern US coast will be vulnerable more severely to wave runup-induced splashing/overtopping than wind-induced storm surges. This finding is consistent with the change in the intensity of storm-generated surface waves in the last decade. The model also suggests that the responses of surge and surface waves to SLR are fully nonlinear. The assessment of the impacts of SLR on the future storm-induced coastal inundation should be investigated with a model including wave-current interactions.

Suggested Citation

  • Changsheng Chen & Zhaolin Lin & Robert C. Beardsley & Tom Shyka & Yu Zhang & Qichun Xu & Jianhua Qi & Huichan Lin & Danya Xu, 2021. "Impacts of sea level rise on future storm-induced coastal inundations over massachusetts coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 375-399, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:106:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04467-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04467-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-04467-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-020-04467-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nick Taylor & Jennifer Irish & Ikpoto Udoh & Matthew Bilskie & Scott Hagen, 2015. "Development and uncertainty quantification of hurricane surge response functions for hazard assessment in coastal bays," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1103-1123, June.
    2. Davina Passeri & Scott Hagen & Matthew Bilskie & Stephen Medeiros, 2015. "On the significance of incorporating shoreline changes for evaluating coastal hydrodynamics under sea level rise scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1599-1617, January.
    3. H. D. Pritchard & S. R. M. Ligtenberg & H. A. Fricker & D. G. Vaughan & M. R. van den Broeke & L. Padman, 2012. "Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves," Nature, Nature, vol. 484(7395), pages 502-505, April.
    4. Ning Lin & Kerry Emanuel & Michael Oppenheimer & Erik Vanmarcke, 2012. "Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 462-467, June.
    5. Hartmut H. Hellmer & Frank Kauker & Ralph Timmermann & Jürgen Determann & Jamie Rae, 2012. "Twenty-first-century warming of a large Antarctic ice-shelf cavity by a redirected coastal current," Nature, Nature, vol. 485(7397), pages 225-228, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Karine Bastos Leal & Luís Eduardo de Souza Robaina & André de Souza De Lima, 2022. "Coastal impacts of storm surges on a changing climate: a global bibliometric analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1455-1476, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhuo Zhang & Changsheng Chen & Zhiyao Song & Dong Zhang & Di Hu & Fei Guo, 2020. "A FVCOM study of the potential coastal flooding in apponagansett bay and clarks cove, Dartmouth Town (MA)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2787-2809, September.
    2. Annette Grilli & Malcolm L. Spaulding & Bryan A. Oakley & Chris Damon, 2017. "Mapping the coastal risk for the next century, including sea level rise and changes in the coastline: application to Charlestown RI, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 389-414, August.
    3. Nick Taylor & Jennifer Irish & Ikpoto Udoh & Matthew Bilskie & Scott Hagen, 2015. "Development and uncertainty quantification of hurricane surge response functions for hazard assessment in coastal bays," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1103-1123, June.
    4. Yuki Miura & Huda Qureshi & Chanyang Ryoo & Philip C. Dinenis & Jiao Li & Kyle T. Mandli & George Deodatis & Daniel Bienstock & Heather Lazrus & Rebecca Morss, 2021. "A methodological framework for determining an optimal coastal protection strategy against storm surges and sea level rise," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(2), pages 1821-1843, June.
    5. Byungdoo Kim & David L. Kay & Jonathon P. Schuldt, 2021. "Will I have to move because of climate change? Perceived likelihood of weather- or climate-related relocation among the US public," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-8, March.
    6. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    7. Junli Xu & Yuhong Zhang & Xianqing Lv & Qiang Liu, 2019. "Inversion of Wind-Stress Drag Coefficient in Simulating Storm Surges by Means of Regularization Technique," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-16, September.
    8. Ceferino, Luis & Lin, Ning & Xi, Dazhi, 2023. "Bayesian updating of solar panel fragility curves and implications of higher panel strength for solar generation resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    9. Austin Becker & Michele Acciaro & Regina Asariotis & Edgard Cabrera & Laurent Cretegny & Philippe Crist & Miguel Esteban & Andrew Mather & Steve Messner & Susumu Naruse & Adolf Ng & Stefan Rahmstorf &, 2013. "A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 683-695, October.
    10. Yi‐Ping Fang & Giovanni Sansavini & Enrico Zio, 2019. "An Optimization‐Based Framework for the Identification of Vulnerabilities in Electric Power Grids Exposed to Natural Hazards," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(9), pages 1949-1969, September.
    11. Donald T. Resio & Taylor G. Asher & Jennifer L. Irish, 2017. "The effects of natural structure on estimated tropical cyclone surge extremes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1609-1637, September.
    12. Barbora Šedová & Lucia Čizmaziová & Athene Cook, 2021. "A meta-analysis of climate migration literature," CEPA Discussion Papers 29, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    13. James Neumann & Kerry Emanuel & Sai Ravela & Lindsay Ludwig & Paul Kirshen & Kirk Bosma & Jeremy Martinich, 2015. "Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US Coasts: new economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, and benefits of mitigation policy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 337-349, March.
    14. Lee, Ji Yun & Ellingwood, Bruce R., 2017. "A decision model for intergenerational life-cycle risk assessment of civil infrastructure exposed to hurricanes under climate change," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 100-107.
    15. Tom Holt & Neil Glasser & Duncan Quincey, 2013. "The structural glaciology of southwest Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves (ca. 2010)," Journal of Maps, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 523-531, December.
    16. Wilmer Rey & E. Tonatiuh Mendoza & Paulo Salles & Keqi Zhang & Yi-Chen Teng & Miguel A. Trejo-Rangel & Gemma L. Franklin, 2019. "Hurricane flood risk assessment for the Yucatan and Campeche State coastal area," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(3), pages 1041-1065, April.
    17. Anamaria Bukvic, 2019. "Visualizing the Possibility of Relocation: Coastal Relocation Leaf," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-12, June.
    18. Jennifer Irish & Alison Sleath & Mary Cialone & Thomas Knutson & Robert Jensen, 2014. "Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) under sea level and climate conditions for 1900," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 635-649, February.
    19. P. M. Orton & F. R. Conticello & F. Cioffi & T. M. Hall & N. Georgas & U. Lall & A. F. Blumberg & K. MacManus, 2020. "Flood hazard assessment from storm tides, rain and sea level rise for a tidal river estuary," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(2), pages 729-757, June.
    20. Rongxing Li & Yuan Cheng & Tian Chang & David E. Gwyther & Martin Forbes & Lu An & Menglian Xia & Xiaohan Yuan & Gang Qiao & Xiaohua Tong & Wenkai Ye, 2023. "Satellite record reveals 1960s acceleration of Totten Ice Shelf in East Antarctica," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:106:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04467-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.