Climatic and drought characteristics in the loess hilly-gully region of China from 1957 to 2014

The loess hilly-gully region is a focus region of the “Grain for Green” program in China. Drought is the main problem in the study region. Precipitation and temperature are two indicators that directly characterize climatic drought. A thorough analysis of the precipitation, temperature and drought characteristics of the loess hilly-gully region can clarify the current water and heat conditions in the region to improve regional water resource management and provide a reliable reference for effectively improving water use efficiency. In this study, we fully analyzed the precipitation and temperature characteristics at 11 representative synoptic stations in the loess hilly-gully region over the period from 1957 to 2014 using a combination of trend-free pre-whitening, linear trend estimation, Spearman’s rho test, the Mann–Kendall (M-K) trend and abrupt change tests and wavelet analysis. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index was calculated and analyzed on different time scales. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) There were significant spatial differences and inter-annual variations in precipitation at the 11 synoptic stations in the study area between 1957 and 2014; the precipitation consistently decreased with fluctuations, and the extent of the decrease varied from a maximum of 17.74 mm/decade to a minimum of 2.92 mm/decade. Except for the downward trends of the autumn and winter mean temperatures at Hequ, the seasonal and annual mean temperatures at the stations showed upward trends, including highly significant upward trends. (2) Alternating drought and wetness occurred in the study area; the wet period mainly appeared in the 1960s, and the main dry period lasted from the late 20th century to 2012. There were fewer dry and wet years than normal years; however, the study area still showed a drying trend, and the severity of the drought was increasing. (3) The annual precipitation and annual mean temperature showed marked cyclical fluctuations at each synoptic station, and the first primary cycle was approximately 28 years. The seasonal precipitation and seasonal temperature showed different cycle lengths; the seasonal cycles of precipitation for spring, summer, autumn and winter were 10, 28, 10 and 26 years long, respectively, and the cycles of the temperature fluctuations for all four seasons were approximately 28 years long.