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Incorporating climate change and morphological uncertainty into coastal change hazard assessments

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  • Heather Baron
  • Peter Ruggiero
  • Nathan Wood
  • Erica Harris
  • Jonathan Allan
  • Paul Komar
  • Patrick Corcoran

Abstract

Documented and forecasted trends in rising sea levels and changes in storminess patterns have the potential to increase the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of coastal change hazards. To develop realistic adaptation strategies, coastal planners need information about coastal change hazards that recognizes the dynamic temporal and spatial scales of beach morphology, the climate controls on coastal change hazards, and the uncertainties surrounding the drivers and impacts of climate change. We present a probabilistic approach for quantifying and mapping coastal change hazards that incorporates the uncertainty associated with both climate change and morphological variability. To demonstrate the approach, coastal change hazard zones of arbitrary confidence levels are developed for the Tillamook County (State of Oregon, USA) coastline using a suite of simple models and a range of possible climate futures related to wave climate, sea-level rise projections, and the frequency of major El Niño events. Extreme total water levels are more influenced by wave height variability, whereas the magnitude of erosion is more influenced by sea-level rise scenarios. Morphological variability has a stronger influence on the width of coastal hazard zones than the uncertainty associated with the range of climate change scenarios. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Heather Baron & Peter Ruggiero & Nathan Wood & Erica Harris & Jonathan Allan & Paul Komar & Patrick Corcoran, 2015. "Incorporating climate change and morphological uncertainty into coastal change hazard assessments," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2081-2102, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:75:y:2015:i:3:p:2081-2102
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1417-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark A. Hemer & Yalin Fan & Nobuhito Mori & Alvaro Semedo & Xiaolan L. Wang, 2013. "Projected changes in wave climate from a multi-model ensemble," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 471-476, May.
    2. David Revell & Robert Battalio & Brian Spear & Peter Ruggiero & Justin Vandever, 2011. "A methodology for predicting future coastal hazards due to sea-level rise on the California Coast," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 251-276, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. R. C. Winter & B. G. Ruessink, 2017. "Sensitivity analysis of climate change impacts on dune erosion: case study for the Dutch Holland coast," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 685-701, April.

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