IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v74y2014i2p1095-1125.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Barnard
  • Maarten Ormondt
  • Li Erikson
  • Jodi Eshleman
  • Cheryl Hapke
  • Peter Ruggiero
  • Peter Adams
  • Amy Foxgrover

Abstract

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) applies a predominantly deterministic framework to make detailed predictions (meter scale) of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications (i.e., nowcasts and multiday forecasts), and future climate scenarios (i.e., sea-level rise + storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm hazards information that may be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. The prototype system, developed for the California coast, uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric-forcing data from either the US National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode), to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These physical processes are dynamically downscaled using a series of nested Delft3D-WAVE (SWAN) and Delft3D-FLOW (FLOW) models and linked at the coast to tightly spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models and a Bayesian probabilistic cliff failure model. Hindcast testing demonstrates that, despite uncertainties in preexisting beach morphology over the ~500 km alongshore extent of the pilot study area, CoSMoS effectively identifies discrete sections of the coast (100s of meters) that are vulnerable to coastal hazards under a range of current and future oceanographic forcing conditions, and is therefore an effective tool for operational and future climate scenario planning. Copyright Us Government 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Barnard & Maarten Ormondt & Li Erikson & Jodi Eshleman & Cheryl Hapke & Peter Ruggiero & Peter Adams & Amy Foxgrover, 2014. "Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 1095-1125, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:74:y:2014:i:2:p:1095-1125
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1236-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-014-1236-y
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-014-1236-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark A. Hemer & Yalin Fan & Nobuhito Mori & Alvaro Semedo & Xiaolan L. Wang, 2013. "Projected changes in wave climate from a multi-model ensemble," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 471-476, May.
    2. Peter Adams & Douglas Inman & Jessica Lovering, 2011. "Effects of climate change and wave direction on longshore sediment transport patterns in Southern California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 211-228, December.
    3. Michael Dettinger & F. Martin Ralph & Mimi Hughes & Tapash Das & Paul Neiman & Dale Cox & Gary Estes & David Reynolds & Robert Hartman & Daniel Cayan & Lucy Jones, 2012. "Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(3), pages 1085-1111, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Madanat, Samer Michel & Papakonstantinou, Ilia & Lee, Jinwoo, 2019. "The benefits of cooperative policies for transportation network protection from sea level rise: A case study of the San Francisco Bay Area," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-9.
    2. Papakonstantinou, Ilia & Lee, Jinwoo & Madanat, Samer Michel, 2019. "Game theoretic approaches for highway infrastructure protection against sea level rise: Co-opetition among multiple players," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 21-37.
    3. Jamie Donatuto & Larry Campbell & William Trousdale, 2020. "The “value” of values-driven data in identifying Indigenous health and climate change priorities," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 161-180, January.
    4. Andrea C. O’Neill & Kees Nederhoff & Li H. Erikson & Jennifer A. Thomas & Patrick L. Barnard, 2024. "A Dataset of Two-Dimensional XBeach Model Set-Up Files for Northern California," Data, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-9, October.
    5. Mark Lubell & Mark Stacey & Michelle A. Hummel, 2021. "Collective action problems and governance barriers to sea-level rise adaptation in San Francisco Bay," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-25, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. J. Sierra & M. Casas-Prat, 2014. "Analysis of potential impacts on coastal areas due to changes in wave conditions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(4), pages 861-876, June.
    2. deCastro, M. & Rusu, L. & Arguilé-Pérez, B. & Ribeiro, A. & Costoya, X. & Carvalho, D. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2024. "Different approaches to analyze the impact of future climate change on the exploitation of wave energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    3. Liu, Jin & Meucci, Alberto & Liu, Qingxiang & Babanin, Alexander V. & Ierodiaconou, Daniel & Xu, Xingkun & Young, Ian R., 2023. "A high-resolution wave energy assessment of south-east Australia based on a 40-year hindcast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    4. Christine M. Albano & Maureen I. McCarthy & Michael D. Dettinger & Stephanie A. McAfee, 2021. "Techniques for constructing climate scenarios for stress test applications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-25, February.
    5. Aydoğan, Burak & Görmüş, Tahsin & Ayat, Berna & Çarpar, Tunay, 2021. "Analysis of potential changes in the Black Sea wave power for the 21st century," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 512-526.
    6. Xin He & Simon Stisen & Marianne Wiese & Hans Henriksen, 2016. "Designing a Hydrological Real-Time System for Surface Water and Groundwater in Denmark with Engagement of Stakeholders," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(5), pages 1785-1802, March.
    7. Walter Dragani & Paula Martin & Guadalupe Alonso & Jorge Codignotto & Bárbara Prario & Guido Bacino, 2013. "Wind wave climate change: Impacts on the littoral processes at the Northern Buenos Aires Province Coast, Argentina," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(4), pages 649-660, December.
    8. Arguilé-Pérez, B. & Ribeiro, A.S. & Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2023. "Suitability of wave energy converters in northwestern Spain under the near future winter wave climate," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    9. Xin He & Simon Stisen & Marianne B. Wiese & Hans Jørgen Henriksen, 2016. "Designing a Hydrological Real-Time System for Surface Water and Groundwater in Denmark with Engagement of Stakeholders," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(5), pages 1785-1802, March.
    10. Harshinie Karunarathna & Pravin Maduwantha & Bahareh Kamranzad & Harsha Rathnasooriya & Kasun De Silva, 2020. "Impacts of Global Climate Change on the Future Ocean Wave Power Potential: A Case Study from the Indian Ocean," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, June.
    11. Jasper Verschuur & Dewi Bars & Caroline A. Katsman & Sierd de Vries & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Sybren S. Drijfhout & Stefan G. J. Aarninkhof, 2020. "Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 859-876, September.
    12. Tiffany Anderson & Charles Fletcher & Matthew Barbee & L. Frazer & Bradley Romine, 2015. "Doubling of coastal erosion under rising sea level by mid-century in Hawaii," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 75-103, August.
    13. Ozkan, Cigdem & Mayo, Talea, 2019. "The renewable wave energy resource in coastal regions of the Florida peninsula," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 530-537.
    14. Joan Pau Sierra & Ricard Castrillo & Marc Mestres & César Mösso & Piero Lionello & Luigi Marzo, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Wave Energy Resource in the Mediterranean Coast of Morocco," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    15. Liu, Jin & Li, Rui & Li, Shuo & Meucci, Alberto & Young, Ian R., 2024. "Increasing wave power due to global climate change and intensification of Antarctic Oscillation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    16. Guido Franco & Daniel Cayan & Susanne Moser & Michael Hanemann & Myoung-Ae Jones, 2011. "Second California Assessment: integrated climate change impacts assessment of natural and managed systems. Guest editorial," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 1-19, December.
    17. Piyali Chowdhury & Manasa Ranjan Behera & Dominic E. Reeve, 2020. "Future wave-climate driven longshore sediment transport along the Indian coast," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 405-424, September.
    18. Wilkie, David & Galasso, Carmine, 2020. "Impact of climate-change scenarios on offshore wind turbine structural performance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    19. Vanem, Erik, 2023. "Analysing multivariate extreme conditions using environmental contours and accounting for serial dependence," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 470-482.
    20. Siddharth Narayan & Michael W Beck & Borja G Reguero & Iñigo J Losada & Bregje van Wesenbeeck & Nigel Pontee & James N Sanchirico & Jane Carter Ingram & Glenn-Marie Lange & Kelly A Burks-Copes, 2016. "The Effectiveness, Costs and Coastal Protection Benefits of Natural and Nature-Based Defences," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:74:y:2014:i:2:p:1095-1125. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.