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Application of fragility curves to estimate building damage and economic loss at a community scale: a case study of Seaside, Oregon

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  • Dane Wiebe
  • Daniel Cox

Abstract

Community-scale estimates of building damage and economic loss are modeled for Seaside, Oregon, for Cascadia subduction zone events ranging from 8.7 to 9.3 M W with corresponding slip distances of 3–25 m considering only the effects of the tsunami. Numerical simulations are obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s method of splitting tsunami model which includes a source model, subsidence, and calculations of the propagation and inundation flow characteristics. The damage estimates are based on fragility curves from the literature which relate flow depth with probability of damage for two different structural materials of buildings. Calculations are performed at the parcel level for the inundation hazard without including damage caused by the earthquake itself. Calculations show that the severity of building damage in Seaside is sensitive to the magnitude of the event or degree of slip because the majority of the city is located on low-lying coastal land within the estimated inundation zone. For the events modeled, the percentage of building within the inundation zone ranges from 9 to 88 %, with average direct economic losses ranging from $2 million to $1.2 billion. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Dane Wiebe & Daniel Cox, 2014. "Application of fragility curves to estimate building damage and economic loss at a community scale: a case study of Seaside, Oregon," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 2043-2061, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:71:y:2014:i:3:p:2043-2061
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0995-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dale Dominey-Howes & Paula Dunbar & Jesse Varner & Maria Papathoma-Köhle, 2010. "Estimating probable maximum loss from a Cascadia tsunami," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 53(1), pages 43-61, April.
    2. Anawat Suppasri & Erick Mas & Ingrid Charvet & Rashmin Gunasekera & Kentaro Imai & Yo Fukutani & Yoshi Abe & Fumihiko Imamura, 2013. "Building damage characteristics based on surveyed data and fragility curves of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 319-341, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chris Lonergan & Nick Hedley & John Clague, 2015. "A visibility-based assessment of tsunami evacuation signs in Seaside, Oregon," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 41-59, August.
    2. Zhitao Fei & Xiaodong Guo & Janes Ouma Odongo & Donghui Ma & Yuanyuan Ren & Jiajia Wu & Wei Wang & Junyi Zhu, 2023. "A Seismic Fragility Assessment Method for Urban Function Spatial Units: A Case Study of Xuzhou City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, May.
    3. Boakye, Jessica & Guidotti, Roberto & Gardoni, Paolo & Murphy, Colleen, 2022. "The role of transportation infrastructure on the impact of natural hazards on communities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    4. Tomoyuki Takabatake & Philippe St-Germain & Ioan Nistor & Jacob Stolle & Tomoya Shibayama, 2019. "Numerical modelling of coastal inundation from Cascadia Subduction Zone tsunamis and implications for coastal communities on western Vancouver Island, Canada," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(1), pages 267-291, August.
    5. Shutian Zhou & Guofang Zhai & Yijun Shi & Yuwen Lu, 2020. "Urban Seismic Risk Assessment by Integrating Direct Economic Loss and Loss of Statistical Life: An Empirical Study in Xiamen, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-21, November.
    6. Chris Lonergan & Nicholas Hedley, 2015. "Navigating the future of tsunami risk communication: using dimensionality, interactivity and situatedness to interface with society," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 179-201, August.
    7. Dylan Sanderson & Sabarethinam Kameshwar & Nathanael Rosenheim & Daniel Cox, 2021. "Deaggregation of multi-hazard damages, losses, risks, and connectivity: an application to the joint seismic-tsunami hazard at Seaside, Oregon," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1821-1847, November.

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