IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v71y2014i1p703-721.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrating Monte Carlo and hydrodynamic models for estimating extreme water levels by storm surge in Colombo, Sri Lanka

Author

Listed:
  • Sudong Xu
  • Wenrui Huang
  • Guiping Zhang
  • Feng Gao
  • Xiaomin Li

Abstract

The prediction of high extremes in sustained water level is very important for coastal engineering design and planning. The recorded historical water level datasets in Colombo, Sri Lanka, are not long enough for the traditional frequency analysis in predicting extreme water levels, such as 50-, 100- and 200-year extreme water levels. In this study, the integrated ADCIRC + SWAN hydrodynamic model and Monte Carlo model have been applied to predict extreme water level in Colombo station of Sri Lanka. The meteorological driving forces of cyclone storm surge are simulated by Monte Carlo stochastic model. The calibrated ADCIRC model with SWAN wave model is used to simulate the potential surge setups with the driving forces generated by Monte Carlo model. By ranking the maximum high water levels in each storm surge procedure, the estimation on extreme high water levels for the desired return period is proposed in this study. The estimated extreme high water levels with return period of 50, 100 and 200 years are 1.28, 1.40 and 1.50 m correspondingly. The estimated extreme high water levels are recommended for engineering design and planning. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Sudong Xu & Wenrui Huang & Guiping Zhang & Feng Gao & Xiaomin Li, 2014. "Integrating Monte Carlo and hydrodynamic models for estimating extreme water levels by storm surge in Colombo, Sri Lanka," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 703-721, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:71:y:2014:i:1:p:703-721
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0916-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-013-0916-3
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-013-0916-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Dube & Indu Jain & A. Rao & T. Murty, 2009. "Storm surge modelling for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 51(1), pages 3-27, October.
    2. Ginni Melton & Melanie Gall & Jerry Mitchell & Susan Cutter, 2010. "Hurricane Katrina storm surge delineation: implications for future storm surge forecasts and warnings," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 54(2), pages 519-536, August.
    3. J. Panigrahi & J. Tripathy & A. Murty, 2011. "Extremity analysis of storm surge for fixing safe design water level," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(1), pages 347-358, January.
    4. J. Panigrahi & P. Umesh & C. Padhy & J. Swain, 2012. "Nearshore propagation of cyclonic waves," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(2), pages 605-622, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhaoqing Yang & Sourav Taraphdar & Taiping Wang & L. Ruby Leung & Molly Grear, 2016. "Uncertainty and feasibility of dynamical downscaling for modeling tropical cyclones for storm surge simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(2), pages 1161-1184, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. F. G. Schmitt & A. Crapoulet & A. Hequette & Y. Huang, 2018. "Nonlinear dynamics of the sea level time series in the eastern English Channel," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(1), pages 267-285, March.
    2. Min Zhang & Yu Huang & Yangjuan Bao, 2016. "The mechanism of shallow submarine landslides triggered by storm surge," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1373-1383, March.
    3. Min Zhang & Yu Huang & Yangjuan Bao, 2016. "The mechanism of shallow submarine landslides triggered by storm surge," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1373-1383, March.
    4. Jhantu Dey & Sayani Mazumder, 2023. "Development of an integrated coastal vulnerability index and its application to the low-lying Mandarmani–Dadanpatrabar coastal sector, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3243-3273, April.
    5. A. D. Rao & Puja Upadhaya & Smita Pandey & Jismy Poulose, 2020. "Simulation of extreme water levels in response to tropical cyclones along the Indian coast: a climate change perspective," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(1), pages 151-172, January.
    6. Xue Jin & Xiaoxia Shi & Jintian Gao & Tongbin Xu & Kedong Yin, 2018. "Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-19, March.
    7. K. K. Basheer Ahammed & Arvind Chandra Pandey & Bikash Ranjan Parida & Wasim & Chandra Shekhar Dwivedi, 2023. "Impact Assessment of Tropical Cyclones Amphan and Nisarga in 2020 in the Northern Indian Ocean," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, February.
    8. Edward Helderop & Tony H. Grubesic, 2022. "Hurricane storm surge: toward a normalized damage index for coastal regions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 1179-1197, January.
    9. Raghu Nadimpalli & Krishna K. Osuri & Sujata Pattanayak & U. C. Mohanty & M. M. Nageswararao & S. Kiran Prasad, 2016. "Real-time prediction of movement, intensity and storm surge of very severe cyclonic storm Hudhud over Bay of Bengal using high-resolution dynamical model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(3), pages 1771-1795, April.
    10. Edris Alam & Dale Dominey-Howes, 2016. "A catalogue of earthquakes between 810BC and 2012 for the Bay of Bengal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(3), pages 2031-2102, April.
    11. Pavel Tkalich & P. Vethamony & M. Babu & Paola Malanotte-Rizzoli, 2013. "Storm surges in the Singapore Strait due to winds in the South China Sea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(3), pages 1345-1362, April.
    12. Michela Biasutti & Adam Sobel & Suzana Camargo & Timothy Creyts, 2012. "Projected changes in the physical climate of the Gulf Coast and Caribbean," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 819-845, June.
    13. G. Brakenridge & J. Syvitski & I. Overeem & S. Higgins & A. Kettner & J. Stewart-Moore & R. Westerhoff, 2013. "Global mapping of storm surges and the assessment of coastal vulnerability," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(3), pages 1295-1312, April.
    14. Md Aboul Fazal Younus, 2017. "An assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to cyclones through impact assessment guidelines: a bottom-up case study from Bangladesh coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(3), pages 1437-1459, December.
    15. B. Sindhu & A. Unnikrishnan, 2012. "Return period estimates of extreme sea level along the east coast of India from numerical simulations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(3), pages 1007-1028, April.
    16. Usha Natesan & P. Rajalakshmi & M. Ramana Murthy & Vincent Ferrer, 2013. "Estimation of wave heights during cyclonic conditions using wave propagation model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 1751-1766, December.
    17. S. Niggol Seo, 2017. "Measuring Policy Benefits Of The Cyclone Shelter Program In The North Indian Ocean: Protection From Intense Winds Or High Storm Surges?," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(04), pages 1-18, November.
    18. Shuxian Liu & Yang Liu & Zhigang Chu & Kun Yang & Guanlan Wang & Lisheng Zhang & Yuanda Zhang, 2023. "Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Disaster Loss Using Machine Learning Algorithms with an eXplainable Artificial Intelligence Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-17, August.
    19. Ran Wang & Laiyin Zhu & Han Yu & Shujuan Cui & Jing’ai Wang, 2016. "Automatic Type Recognition and Mapping of Global Tropical Cyclone Disaster Chains (TDC)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-16, October.
    20. Yashvant Das, 2018. "Parametric modeling of tropical cyclone wind fields in India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(2), pages 1049-1084, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:71:y:2014:i:1:p:703-721. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.