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Extremity analysis of storm surge for fixing safe design water level

Author

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  • J. Panigrahi
  • J. Tripathy
  • A. Murty

Abstract

Phenomenal storm surge levels associated with cyclones are common in East Coast of India. The coastal regions of Andhra Pradesh are in rapid stride of myriad marine infrastructural developments. The safe elevations of coastal structures need a long-term assessment of storm surge conditions. Hence, past 50 years (1949–1998), tropical cyclones hit the Bay are obtained from Fleet Naval Meteorological & Oceanographic Center, USA, and analyzed to assess the storm surge experienced around Kakinada and along south Andhra Pradesh coast. In this paper, authors implemented Rankin Hydromet Vortex model and Bretschneider’s wind stress formulation to hindcast the surge levels. It is seen from the hindcast data that the November, 1977 cyclone has generated highest surge of the order of 1.98 m. Extreme value analysis is carried out using Weibull distribution for long-term prediction. The results reveal that the surge for 1 in 100-year return period is 2.0 m. Further the highest surge in 50 years generated by the severe cyclone (1977) is numerically simulated using hydrodynamic model of Mike-21. The simulation results show that the Krishnapatnam, Nizampatnam and south of Kakinada have experienced a surge of 1.0, 1.5 and 0.75 m, respectively. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Suggested Citation

  • J. Panigrahi & J. Tripathy & A. Murty, 2011. "Extremity analysis of storm surge for fixing safe design water level," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(1), pages 347-358, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:56:y:2011:i:1:p:347-358
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-010-9573-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Sudong Xu & Wenrui Huang & Guiping Zhang & Feng Gao & Xiaomin Li, 2014. "Integrating Monte Carlo and hydrodynamic models for estimating extreme water levels by storm surge in Colombo, Sri Lanka," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 703-721, March.

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