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Storm surges in the Singapore Strait due to winds in the South China Sea

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  • Pavel Tkalich
  • P. Vethamony
  • M. Babu
  • Paola Malanotte-Rizzoli

Abstract

Among the semi-enclosed basins of the world ocean, the South China Sea (SCS) is unique in its configuration as it lies under the main southwest-northeast pathway of the seasonal monsoons. The northeast (NE) monsoon (November–February) and southwest (SW) monsoon (June–August) dominate the large-scale sea level dynamics of the SCS. Sunda Shelf at the southwest part of SCS tends to amplify Sea Level Anomalies (SLAs) generated by winds over the sea. The entire region, bounded by Gulf of Thailand on the north, Karimata Strait on the south, east cost of Peninsular Malaysia on the west, and break of Sunda Shelf on the east, could experience positive or negative SLAs depending on the wind direction and speed. Strong sea level surges during NE monsoon, if coincide with spring tide, usually lead to coastal floods in the region. To understand the phenomena, we analyzed the wind-driven sea level anomalies focusing on Singapore Strait (SS), laying at the most southwest point of the region. An analysis of Tanjong Pagar tide gauge data in the SS, as well as satellite altimetry and reanalyzed wind in the region, reveals that the wind over central part of SCS is arguably the most important factor determining the observed variability of SLAs at hourly to monthly scales. Climatological SLAs in SS are found to be positive, and of the order of 30 cm during NE monsoon, but negative, and of the order of 20 cm during SW monsoon. The largest anomalies are associated with intensified winds during NE monsoon, with historical highs exceeding 50 cm. At the hourly and daily time-scales, SLA magnitude is correlated with the NE wind speed over central part of SCS with an average time lag of 36–42 h. An exact solution is derived by approximating the elongated SCS shape with one-dimensional two-step channel. The solution is utilized to derive simple model connecting SLAs in SS with the wind speeds over central part of SCS. Due to delay of sea level anomaly in SS with respect to the remote source at SCS, the simplified solutions could be used for storm surge forecast, with a lead time exceeding 1 day. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Pavel Tkalich & P. Vethamony & M. Babu & Paola Malanotte-Rizzoli, 2013. "Storm surges in the Singapore Strait due to winds in the South China Sea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(3), pages 1345-1362, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:66:y:2013:i:3:p:1345-1362
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0211-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Susmita Dasgupta & Benoit Laplante & Siobhan Murray & David Wheeler, 2009. "Climate Change and the Future Impacts of Storm-Surge Disasters in Developing Countries," Working Papers 182, Center for Global Development.
    2. S. Dube & Indu Jain & A. Rao & T. Murty, 2009. "Storm surge modelling for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 51(1), pages 3-27, October.
    3. A. Rao & S. Babu & S. Dube, 2004. "Impact of a Tropical Cyclone on Coastal Upwelling Processes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 31(2), pages 415-435, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dat T. Pham & Adam D. Switzer & Gabriel Huerta & Aron J. Meltzner & Huan M. Nguyen & Emma M. Hill, 2019. "Spatiotemporal variations of extreme sea levels around the South China Sea: assessing the influence of tropical cyclones, monsoons and major climate modes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(3), pages 969-1001, September.

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