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About the observed and future changes in temperature extremes over India

Author

Listed:
  • J. Revadekar
  • D. Kothawale
  • S. Patwardhan
  • G. Pant
  • K. Rupa Kumar

Abstract

An attempt is made in the present study to analyse observed and model simulated temperature extremes over Indian region. Daily maximum and minimum temperature data at 121 well-distributed stations for the period 1970–2003 have been used to study the observed changes in objectively defined values of temperature extremes. In addition, an assessment of future scenarios of temperature extremes associated with increase in the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases is done using simulations of a state-of-the-art regional climate modelling system known as PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) performed to generate the climate for the present (1961–1990) and future projections for the period 2071–2100. Observational analysis done with 121 stations suggests the widespread warming through increase in intensity and frequency of hot events and also with decrease in frequency of cold events. More than 75% stations show decreasing trend in number of cold events and about 70% stations show increasing trend in hot events. Percentage of stations towards the warming through intensity indices of highest maximum temperature, lowest minimum temperature is 78 and 71% stations, respectively. Remaining stations show opposite trends, however, most of them are statistically insignificant. Observational analysis for India as a whole also shows similar results. Composite anomalies for monthly temperature extremes over two equal parts of the data period show increase (decrease) in the frequency of hot (cold) events for all months. In general, PRECIS simulations under both A2 and B2 scenarios indicate increase (decrease) in hot (cold) extremes towards the end of twenty-first century. Both show similar patterns, but the B2 scenario shows slightly lower magnitudes of the projected changes. Temperatures are likely to increase in entire calendar year, but the changes in winter season are expected to be prominent. Diurnal temperature range is expected to decrease in winter (JF) and pre-monsoon (MAM) months. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • J. Revadekar & D. Kothawale & S. Patwardhan & G. Pant & K. Rupa Kumar, 2012. "About the observed and future changes in temperature extremes over India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(3), pages 1133-1155, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:60:y:2012:i:3:p:1133-1155
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9895-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gian-Reto Walther & Eric Post & Peter Convey & Annette Menzel & Camille Parmesan & Trevor J. C. Beebee & Jean-Marc Fromentin & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Franz Bairlein, 2002. "Ecological responses to recent climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6879), pages 389-395, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Soma Sen Roy & Shouraseni Sen Roy, 2021. "Spatial patterns of long-term trends in thunderstorms in India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(2), pages 1527-1540, June.
    2. Mohsen Abbasnia, 2019. "Climatic characteristics of heat waves under climate change: a case study of mid-latitudes, Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 637-656, April.
    3. Neha Mittal & Ashok Mishra & Rajendra Singh, 2013. "Combining climatological and participatory approaches for assessing changes in extreme climatic indices at regional scale," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 603-615, August.
    4. Victor Ongoma & Haishan Chen & Chujie Gao & Aston Matwai Nyongesa & Francis Polong, 2018. "Future changes in climate extremes over Equatorial East Africa based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(2), pages 901-920, January.

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