Risk assessment of natural and other hazard factors on drowning incidents in Turkey

Drowning, mainly originating from natural factors, is a significant source of hazards worldwide. In this study, the effects and risk assessment of natural and other hazard factors on unintentional drowning cases (UDI) between 2010 and 2020 in Turkey were investigated for the first time. An average of 935 UDIs recorded each year during the study period. 66.1% of UDIs resulted in a fatality, corresponding to a fatality rate of 0.79 per 100,000 population. The highest UDIs rate, with an average of 30.13 per 100,000 population, was recorded in Bartın province, located on the south coast of the Black Sea. The highest incidence of drowning was seen in teenagers aged 15–19 years and mostly in males. The analysis and previous studies showed that rip currents are the leading cause of natural hazards in drowning incidents on the south coast of the Black Sea. Another significant natural factor in drowning incidents is temporal distribution by months and seasons. The study identified warm seasons as a risk-increasing factor because the number of UDIs was at record levels. According to the number of incidents, almost 80% of victims suffer from drowning during swimming and recreating activities in the surf zone and natural or artificial coastal structures. The study highlights the need for effective prevention strategies that consider such as specific demographic and temporal characteristics, location of incident and type of activity in drowning cases.