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Threshold or Limit? Precipitation Dependency of Austrian Landslides, an Ongoing Challenge for Hazard Mapping under Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Ivo Offenthaler

    (Umweltbundesamt (Austrian Environment Agency), 1090 Vienna, Austria)

  • Astrid Felderer

    (Umweltbundesamt (Austrian Environment Agency), 1090 Vienna, Austria)

  • Herbert Formayer

    (Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, 1180 Vienna, Austria)

  • Natalie Glas

    (Umweltbundesamt (Austrian Environment Agency), 1090 Vienna, Austria)

  • David Leidinger

    (Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, 1180 Vienna, Austria)

  • Philip Leopold

    (AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, 1210 Vienna, Austria)

  • Anna Schmidt

    (Umweltbundesamt (Austrian Environment Agency), 1090 Vienna, Austria)

  • Manfred J. Lexer

    (Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, 1180 Vienna, Austria)

Abstract

Climate change is set to increase landslide frequency around the globe, thus increasing the potential exposure of people and material assets to these disturbances. Landslide hazard is commonly modelled from terrain and precipitation parameters, assuming that shorter, more intense rain events require less precipitation volume to trigger a slide. Given the extent of non-catastrophic slides, an operable vulnerability mapping requires high spatial resolution. We combined heterogeneous regional slide inventories with long-term meteorological records and small-scale spatial information for hazard modelling. Slope, its (protective) interaction with forest cover, and altitude were the most influential terrain parameters. A widely used exponential threshold to estimate critical precipitation was found to incorrectly predict meteorological hazard to a substantial degree and, qualitatively, delineate the upper boundary of natural conditions rather than a critical threshold. Scaling rainfall parameters from absolute values into local probabilities (per km²) however revealed a consistent pattern across datasets, with the transition from normal to critical rain volumes and durations being gradual rather than abrupt thresholds. Scaled values could be reverted into site-specific nomograms for easy appraisal of critical rain conditions by local stakeholders. An overlay of terrain-related hazard with infrastructure yielded local vulnerability maps, which were verified with actual slide occurrence. Multiple potential for observation bias in ground-based slide reporting underlined the value of complementary earth observation data for slide mapping and early warning.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivo Offenthaler & Astrid Felderer & Herbert Formayer & Natalie Glas & David Leidinger & Philip Leopold & Anna Schmidt & Manfred J. Lexer, 2020. "Threshold or Limit? Precipitation Dependency of Austrian Landslides, an Ongoing Challenge for Hazard Mapping under Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-17, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:15:p:6182-:d:392692
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Guido Antonetti & Matteo Gentilucci & Domenico Aringoli & Gilberto Pambianchi, 2022. "Analysis of landslide Susceptibility and Tree Felling Due to an Extreme Event at Mid-Latitudes: Case Study of Storm Vaia, Italy," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-21, October.

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