IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i15p6182-d392692.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Threshold or Limit? Precipitation Dependency of Austrian Landslides, an Ongoing Challenge for Hazard Mapping under Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Ivo Offenthaler

    (Umweltbundesamt (Austrian Environment Agency), 1090 Vienna, Austria)

  • Astrid Felderer

    (Umweltbundesamt (Austrian Environment Agency), 1090 Vienna, Austria)

  • Herbert Formayer

    (Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, 1180 Vienna, Austria)

  • Natalie Glas

    (Umweltbundesamt (Austrian Environment Agency), 1090 Vienna, Austria)

  • David Leidinger

    (Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, 1180 Vienna, Austria)

  • Philip Leopold

    (AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, 1210 Vienna, Austria)

  • Anna Schmidt

    (Umweltbundesamt (Austrian Environment Agency), 1090 Vienna, Austria)

  • Manfred J. Lexer

    (Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, 1180 Vienna, Austria)

Abstract

Climate change is set to increase landslide frequency around the globe, thus increasing the potential exposure of people and material assets to these disturbances. Landslide hazard is commonly modelled from terrain and precipitation parameters, assuming that shorter, more intense rain events require less precipitation volume to trigger a slide. Given the extent of non-catastrophic slides, an operable vulnerability mapping requires high spatial resolution. We combined heterogeneous regional slide inventories with long-term meteorological records and small-scale spatial information for hazard modelling. Slope, its (protective) interaction with forest cover, and altitude were the most influential terrain parameters. A widely used exponential threshold to estimate critical precipitation was found to incorrectly predict meteorological hazard to a substantial degree and, qualitatively, delineate the upper boundary of natural conditions rather than a critical threshold. Scaling rainfall parameters from absolute values into local probabilities (per km²) however revealed a consistent pattern across datasets, with the transition from normal to critical rain volumes and durations being gradual rather than abrupt thresholds. Scaled values could be reverted into site-specific nomograms for easy appraisal of critical rain conditions by local stakeholders. An overlay of terrain-related hazard with infrastructure yielded local vulnerability maps, which were verified with actual slide occurrence. Multiple potential for observation bias in ground-based slide reporting underlined the value of complementary earth observation data for slide mapping and early warning.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivo Offenthaler & Astrid Felderer & Herbert Formayer & Natalie Glas & David Leidinger & Philip Leopold & Anna Schmidt & Manfred J. Lexer, 2020. "Threshold or Limit? Precipitation Dependency of Austrian Landslides, an Ongoing Challenge for Hazard Mapping under Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-17, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:15:p:6182-:d:392692
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/15/6182/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/15/6182/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seung-Ki Min & Xuebin Zhang & Francis W. Zwiers & Gabriele C. Hegerl, 2011. "Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes," Nature, Nature, vol. 470(7334), pages 378-381, February.
    2. Elizabeth J. Kendon & Nigel M. Roberts & Hayley J. Fowler & Malcolm J. Roberts & Steven C. Chan & Catherine A. Senior, 2014. "Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(7), pages 570-576, July.
    3. E. M. Fischer & R. Knutti, 2015. "Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 560-564, June.
    4. Markus Reichstein & Michael Bahn & Philippe Ciais & Dorothea Frank & Miguel D. Mahecha & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Jakob Zscheischler & Christian Beer & Nina Buchmann & David C. Frank & Dario Papale & An, 2013. "Climate extremes and the carbon cycle," Nature, Nature, vol. 500(7462), pages 287-295, August.
    5. Roberta Paranunzio & Francesco Laio & Guido Nigrelli & Marta Chiarle, 2015. "A method to reveal climatic variables triggering slope failures at high elevation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(2), pages 1039-1061, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guido Antonetti & Matteo Gentilucci & Domenico Aringoli & Gilberto Pambianchi, 2022. "Analysis of landslide Susceptibility and Tree Felling Due to an Extreme Event at Mid-Latitudes: Case Study of Storm Vaia, Italy," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-21, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nick Obradovich, 2017. "Climate change may speed democratic turnover," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 135-147, January.
    2. Wei Zhang & Gabriele Villarini, 2017. "Heavy precipitation is highly sensitive to the magnitude of future warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 249-257, November.
    3. Davor Kvočka & Roger A. Falconer & Michaela Bray, 2016. "Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 1569-1599, December.
    4. Huicai Yang & Shuqin Zhao & Zhanfei Qin & Zhiguo Qi & Xinying Jiao & Zhen Li, 2024. "Differentiation of Carbon Sink Enhancement Potential in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, March.
    5. Ikefuji, Masako & Horii, Ryo, 2012. "Natural disasters in a two-sector model of endogenous growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(9-10), pages 784-796.
    6. Zoe E. Petropoulos & Oriana Ramirez-Rubio & Madeleine K. Scammell & Rebecca L. Laws & Damaris Lopez-Pilarte & Juan José Amador & Joan Ballester & Cristina O’Callaghan-Gordo & Daniel R. Brooks, 2021. "Climate Trends at a Hotspot of Chronic Kidney Disease of Unknown Causes in Nicaragua, 1973–2014," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-13, May.
    7. Rei Itsukushima & Yohei Ogahara & Yuki Iwanaga & Tatsuro Sato, 2018. "Investigating the Influence of Various Stormwater Runoff Control Facilities on Runoff Control Efficiency in a Small Catchment Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-12, February.
    8. Yaolong Liu & Guorui Feng & Ye Xue & Huaming Zhang & Ruoguang Wang, 2015. "Small-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study from the town of Shuitou, Pingyang County, Wenzhou, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2167-2183, February.
    9. Islam, Moinul & Kotani, Koji & Managi, Shunsuke, 2016. "Climate perception and flood mitigation cooperation: A Bangladesh case study," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 117-133.
    10. Kaustubh Salvi & Subimal Ghosh, 2016. "Projections of Extreme Dry and Wet Spells in the 21st Century India Using Stationary and Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Indices," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 667-681, December.
    11. Moazami, Amin & Nik, Vahid M. & Carlucci, Salvatore & Geving, Stig, 2019. "Impacts of future weather data typology on building energy performance – Investigating long-term patterns of climate change and extreme weather conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 696-720.
    12. Coderoni, Silvia & Pagliacci, Francesco, 2023. "The impact of climate change on land productivity. A micro-level assessment for Italian farms," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    13. Shuangzhi Li & Xiaoling Zhang & Zhongci Deng & Xiaokang Liu & Ruoou Yang & Lihao Yin, 2023. "Identifying the Critical Supply Chains for Black Carbon and CO 2 in the Sichuan Urban Agglomeration of Southwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-19, October.
    14. Yujin Li & Juying Jiao & Zhijie Wang & Binting Cao & Yanhong Wei & Shu Hu, 2016. "Effects of Revegetation on Soil Organic Carbon Storage and Erosion-Induced Carbon Loss under Extreme Rainstorms in the Hill and Gully Region of the Loess Plateau," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-15, April.
    15. Jascha Lehmann & Dim Coumou & Katja Frieler, 2015. "Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 501-515, October.
    16. Greg Lusk, 2017. "The social utility of event attribution: liability, adaptation, and justice-based loss and damage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 201-212, July.
    17. Fabian Barthel & Eric Neumayer, 2012. "A trend analysis of normalized insured damage from natural disasters," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 215-237, July.
    18. Golam Saleh Ahmed Salem & So Kazama & Shamsuddin Shahid & Nepal C. Dey, 2018. "Groundwater-dependent irrigation costs and benefits for adaptation to global change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 953-979, August.
    19. Patrick Willems, 2013. "Multidecadal oscillatory behaviour of rainfall extremes in Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 931-944, October.
    20. Brennan, Timothy J., 2011. "Energy Efficiency Policy: Surveying the Puzzles," RFF Working Paper Series dp-11-27, Resources for the Future.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:15:p:6182-:d:392692. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.