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Testing drought indicators for summer burned area prediction in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriele Vissio

    (National Research Council (CNR))

  • Marco Turco

    (University of Murcia)

  • Antonello Provenzale

    (National Research Council (CNR))

Abstract

During the summer season, the Italian territory is vulnerable to extended wildfires, which can have dramatic impact on human activities and ecosystems. Such wildfire events are usually associated with the presence of drought conditions and are generally more severe in southern Italy, owing to the high temperatures and reduced precipitation that characterize this geographical region. In this work, we discuss the statistical analysis of the burned area (BA) in Italy and build simple data-driven models linking BA to different climatic drivers, comparing the relevance of direct surface soil moisture information to that provided by drought indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We show that considering surface soil moisture alone is sufficient to produce reliable out-of-sample predictions in a large part of the country. By contrast, SPEI allows for better model performances in the more arid regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriele Vissio & Marco Turco & Antonello Provenzale, 2023. "Testing drought indicators for summer burned area prediction in Italy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 1125-1137, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:116:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05714-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05714-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marco Turco & Maria-Carmen Llasat & Jost Hardenberg & Antonello Provenzale, 2014. "Climate change impacts on wildfires in a Mediterranean environment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 369-380, August.
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    4. Sha Zhou & A. Park Williams & Benjamin R. Lintner & Alexis M. Berg & Yao Zhang & Trevor F. Keenan & Benjamin I. Cook & Stefan Hagemann & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Pierre Gentine, 2021. "Soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks mitigate declining water availability in drylands," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 38-44, January.
    5. Sha Zhou & A. Park Williams & Benjamin R. Lintner & Alexis M. Berg & Yao Zhang & Trevor F. Keenan & Benjamin I. Cook & Stefan Hagemann & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Pierre Gentine, 2021. "Publisher Correction: Soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks mitigate declining water availability in drylands," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(3), pages 274-274, March.
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