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Spatial and temporal expansion of global wildland fire activity in response to climate change

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  • Martín Senande-Rivera

    (Universidade de Santiago de Compostela)

  • Damián Insua-Costa

    (Universidade de Santiago de Compostela)

  • Gonzalo Miguez-Macho

    (Universidade de Santiago de Compostela)

Abstract

Global warming is expected to alter wildfire potential and fire season severity, but the magnitude and location of change is still unclear. Here, we show that climate largely determines present fire-prone regions and their fire season. We categorize these regions according to the climatic characteristics of their fire season into four classes, within general Boreal, Temperate, Tropical and Arid climate zones. Based on climate model projections, we assess the modification of the fire-prone regions in extent and fire season length at the end of the 21st century. We find that due to global warming, the global area with frequent fire-prone conditions would increase by 29%, mostly in Boreal (+111%) and Temperate (+25%) zones, where there may also be a significant lengthening of the potential fire season. Our estimates of the global expansion of fire-prone areas highlight the large but uneven impact of a warming climate on Earth’s environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Martín Senande-Rivera & Damián Insua-Costa & Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, 2022. "Spatial and temporal expansion of global wildland fire activity in response to climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-28835-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28835-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark A. Cochrane, 2003. "Fire science for rainforests," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6926), pages 913-919, February.
    2. Meg A Krawchuk & Max A Moritz & Marc-André Parisien & Jeff Van Dorn & Katharine Hayhoe, 2009. "Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(4), pages 1-12, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kathryn McConnell & Elizabeth Fussell & Jack DeWaard & Stephan Whitaker & Katherine J. Curtis & Lise Denis & Jennifer Balch & Kobie Price, 2024. "Rare and highly destructive wildfires drive human migration in the U.S," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Timothy Neal, 2023. "The Importance of External Weather Effects in Projecting the Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Discussion Papers 2023-09, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    3. Simon P. K. Bowring & Wei Li & Florent Mouillot & Thais M. Rosan & Philippe Ciais, 2024. "Road fragment edges enhance wildfire incidence and intensity, while suppressing global burned area," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, December.

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