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The Changing Strength and Nature of Fire-Climate Relationships in the Northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008

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  • Philip E Higuera
  • John T Abatzoglou
  • Jeremy S Littell
  • Penelope Morgan

Abstract

Time-varying fire-climate relationships may represent an important component of fire-regime variability, relevant for understanding the controls of fire and projecting fire activity under global-change scenarios. We used time-varying statistical models to evaluate if and how fire-climate relationships varied from 1902-2008, in one of the most flammable forested regions of the western U.S.A. Fire-danger and water-balance metrics yielded the best combination of calibration accuracy and predictive skill in modeling annual area burned. The strength of fire-climate relationships varied markedly at multi-decadal scales, with models explaining

Suggested Citation

  • Philip E Higuera & John T Abatzoglou & Jeremy S Littell & Penelope Morgan, 2015. "The Changing Strength and Nature of Fire-Climate Relationships in the Northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-21, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0127563
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0127563
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexandra D Syphard & Timothy Sheehan & Heather Rustigian-Romsos & Kenneth Ferschweiler, 2018. "Mapping future fire probability under climate change: Does vegetation matter?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-23, August.
    2. Henne, Paul D. & Hawbaker, Todd J., 2023. "An aridity threshold model of fire sizes and annual area burned in extensively forested ecoregions of the western USA," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 477(C).
    3. Saeedeh Eskandari & Hooman Ravanbakhsh & Yazdanfar Ahangaran & Zolfaghar Rezapour & Hamid Reza Pourghasemi, 2023. "Effect of climate change on fire regimes in natural resources of northern Iran: investigation of spatiotemporal relationships using regression and data mining models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 497-521, October.
    4. Richard Waring & Nicholas Coops, 2016. "Predicting large wildfires across western North America by modeling seasonal variation in soil water balance," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 325-339, March.
    5. Diana R. Gergel & Bart Nijssen & John T. Abatzoglou & Dennis P. Lettenmaier & Matt R. Stumbaugh, 2017. "Effects of climate change on snowpack and fire potential in the western USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 287-299, March.
    6. Richard H. Waring & Nicholas C. Coops, 2016. "Predicting large wildfires across western North America by modeling seasonal variation in soil water balance," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 325-339, March.

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