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Forest fire danger projections in the Mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios

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  • J. Bedia
  • S. Herrera
  • A. Camia
  • J. M. Moreno
  • J. M. Gutiérrez

Abstract

We present future fire danger scenarios for the countries bordering the Mediterranean areas of Europe and north Africa building on a multi-model ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate projections from the EU-funded project ENSEMBLES. Fire danger is estimated using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and a related set of indices. To overcome some of the limitations of ENSEMBLES data for their application on the FWI System—recently highlighted in a previous study by Herrera et al. (Clim Chang 118:827–840, 2013)—we used an optimal proxy variable combination. A robust assessment of future fire danger projections is undertaken by disentangling the climate change signal from the uncertainty derived from the multi-model ensemble, unveiling a positive signal of fire danger potential over large areas of the Mediterranean. The increase in the fire danger signal is accentuated towards the latest part of the transient period, thus pointing to an elevated fire potential in the region with time. The fire-climate links under present and future conditions are further discussed building upon observed climate data and burned area records along a representative climatic gradient within the study region. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • J. Bedia & S. Herrera & A. Camia & J. M. Moreno & J. M. Gutiérrez, 2014. "Forest fire danger projections in the Mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 185-199, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:122:y:2014:i:1:p:185-199
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1005-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Meg Krawchuk & Steve Cumming & Mike Flannigan, 2009. "Predicted changes in fire weather suggest increases in lightning fire initiation and future area burned in the mixedwood boreal forest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 83-97, January.
    2. J. Bedia & S. Herrera & D. Martín & N. Koutsias & J. Gutiérrez, 2013. "Robust projections of Fire Weather Index in the Mediterranean using statistical downscaling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 229-247, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. A. Casanueva & M. Frías & S. Herrera & D. San-Martín & K. Zaninovic & J. Gutiérrez, 2014. "Statistical downscaling of climate impact indices: testing the direct approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 547-560, December.
    2. Giuseppe Bombino & Daniela D’Agostino & Pasquale A. Marziliano & Pedro Pérez Cutillas & Salvatore Praticò & Andrea R. Proto & Leonardo M. Manti & Giuseppina Lofaro & Santo M. Zimbone, 2024. "A Nature-Based Approach Using Felled Burnt Logs to Enhance Forest Recovery Post-Fire and Reduce Erosion Phenomena in the Mediterranean Area," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-29, February.
    3. Olga M. Lozano & Michele Salis & Alan A. Ager & Bachisio Arca & Fermin J. Alcasena & Antonio T. Monteiro & Mark A. Finney & Liliana Del Giudice & Enrico Scoccimarro & Donatella Spano, 2017. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(10), pages 1898-1916, October.
    4. A. Casanueva & J. Bedia & S. Herrera & J. Fernández & J. M. Gutiérrez, 2018. "Direct and component-wise bias correction of multi-variate climate indices: the percentile adjustment function diagnostic tool," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 411-425, April.
    5. Valentina Bacciu & Maria Hatzaki & Anna Karali & Adeline Cauchy & Christos Giannakopoulos & Donatella Spano & Elodie Briche, 2021. "Investigating the Climate-Related Risk of Forest Fires for Mediterranean Islands’ Blue Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-22, September.
    6. Piyush Jain & Mari R. Tye & Debasish Paimazumder & Mike Flannigan, 2020. "Downscaling fire weather extremes from historical and projected climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 189-216, November.
    7. Lasanta, Teodoro & Cortijos-López, Melani & Errea, M. Paz & Khorchani, Makki & Nadal-Romero, Estela, 2022. "An environmental management experience to control wildfires in the mid-mountain mediterranean area: Shrub clearing to generate mosaic landscapes," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    8. André Vizinho & David Avelar & Cristina Branquinho & Tiago Capela Lourenço & Silvia Carvalho & Alice Nunes & Leonor Sucena-Paiva & Hugo Oliveira & Ana Lúcia Fonseca & Filipe Duarte Santos & Maria José, 2021. "Framework for Climate Change Adaptation of Agriculture and Forestry in Mediterranean Climate Regions," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-33, February.
    9. Gabriele Vissio & Marco Turco & Antonello Provenzale, 2023. "Testing drought indicators for summer burned area prediction in Italy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 1125-1137, March.

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