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The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies—A Danish water management example

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  • J. Refsgaard
  • K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen
  • M. Drews
  • K. Halsnæs
  • E. Jeppesen
  • H. Madsen
  • A. Markandya
  • J. Olesen
  • J. Porter
  • J. Christensen

Abstract

We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts are epistemic (reducible) by nature but uncertainties on adaptation measures are complex, with ambiguity often being added to impact uncertainties. Strategies to deal with uncertainty in climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they interact with risk level and decision making: (i) epistemic uncertainties can be reduced by gaining more knowledge; (ii) uncertainties related to ambiguity can be reduced by dialogue and knowledge sharing between the different stakeholders; and (iii) aleatory uncertainty is, by its nature, non-reducible. The uncertainty cascade includes many sources and their propagation through technical and socio-economic models may add substantially to prediction uncertainties, but they may also cancel each other. Thus, even large uncertainties may have small consequences for decision making, because multiple sources of information provide sufficient knowledge to justify action in climate change adaptation. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

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  • J. Refsgaard & K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen & M. Drews & K. Halsnæs & E. Jeppesen & H. Madsen & A. Markandya & J. Olesen & J. Porter & J. Christensen, 2013. "The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies—A Danish water management example," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 337-359, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:18:y:2013:i:3:p:337-359
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-012-9366-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Andrzej Magruk, 2020. "Uncertainties, Knowledge, and Futures in Foresight Studies — A Case of the Industry 4.0," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 14(4), pages 20-33.
    3. Carlo Giupponi, 2014. "Decision Support for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in Water Resources Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4795-4808, October.
    4. Anil Markandya & Enrica De Cian & Laurent Drouet & Josué M. Polanco-Martìnez & Francesco Bosello, 2016. "Building Uncertainty into the Adaptation Cost Estimation in Integrated Assessment Models," Working Papers 2016.21, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    5. J. Refsgaard & H. Madsen & V. Andréassian & K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen & T. Davidson & M. Drews & D. Hamilton & E. Jeppesen & E. Kjellström & J. Olesen & T. Sonnenborg & D. Trolle & P. Willems & J. Christens, 2014. "A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 271-282, January.
    6. Bhave, Ajay Gajanan & Conway, Declan & Dessai, Suraje & Stainforth, David A., 2017. "Barriers and opportunities for robust decision making approaches to support climate change adaptation in the developing world," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68318, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Huong Hoang-Thi & Shah Fahad & Ashfaq Ahmad Shah & Tung Nguyen-Huu-Minh & Tuan Nguyen-Anh & Song Nguyen-Van & Nguyen To-The & Huong Nguyen-Thi-Lan, 2023. "Evaluating the farmers’ adoption behavior of water conservation in mountainous region Vietnam: extrinsic and intrinsic determinants," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(2), pages 1313-1330, January.
    8. Hadush Meresa & Yongqiang Zhang, 2021. "Contrasting Uncertainties in Estimating Floods and Low Flow Extremes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(6), pages 1775-1795, April.
    9. Elia A Machado & Samuel Ratick, 2018. "Implications of indicator aggregation methods for global change vulnerability reduction efforts," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(7), pages 1109-1141, October.
    10. P. Marcos-Garcia & M. Pulido-Velazquez & C. Sanchis-Ibor & M. García-Mollá & M. Ortega-Reig & A. Garcia-Prats & C. Girard, 2023. "From local knowledge to decision making in climate change adaptation at basin scale. Application to the Jucar River Basin, Spain," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-23, April.
    11. Frans Klijn & Bruno Merz & Edmund Penning-Rowsell & Zbigniew Kundzewicz, 2015. "Preface: climate change proof flood risk management," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 837-843, August.
    12. J. Sun & Y. P. Li & X. W. Zhuang & S.W. Jin & G. H. Huang & R. F. Feng, 2018. "Identifying water resources management strategies in adaptation to climate change under uncertainty," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 553-578, April.
    13. Hadush Meresa & Bernhard Tischbein & Tewodros Mekonnen, 2022. "Climate change impact on extreme precipitation and peak flood magnitude and frequency: observations from CMIP6 and hydrological models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2649-2679, April.
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