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The unseen uncertainties in climate change: reviewing comprehension of an IPCC scenario graph

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  • Rosemarie McMahon
  • Michael Stauffacher
  • Reto Knutti

Abstract

The reports published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are comprehensive assessments of the scientific knowledge and uncertainties surrounding climate projections. They combine well-formed language with supporting graphical evidence and have the objective to inform policymakers. One of the most discussed and widely distributed visual in these reports is the graph, showing the global surface temperature evolution for the 21st century as simulated by climate models for various emission scenarios, which is part of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) and the Working Group I contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). It displays two types of uncertainties, namely the socio-economic scenarios and response uncertainty due to imperfect knowledge and models. Through 43 in-depth interviews this graph and caption was empirically tested with a sample of people analogous to the SPM target audience. It was found that novice readers were unable to identify the two different types of uncertainties in this graph without substantial guidance. Instead they saw a great deal of uncertainty but falsely attributed it to the climate model(s) and ignored the scenario uncertainties. Our findings demonstrate how the choice of display can directly impact a reader’s perception of the scientific message. A failure to distinguish between these two types of uncertainties could lead to an overestimate of the response uncertainties, and an underestimation of socio-economic choices. We test this assumption and identify the difficulties non-technical audiences have with this graph and how this could inevitably impede its value as a decision support tool. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Rosemarie McMahon & Michael Stauffacher & Reto Knutti, 2015. "The unseen uncertainties in climate change: reviewing comprehension of an IPCC scenario graph," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 141-154, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:133:y:2015:i:2:p:141-154
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1473-4
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    1. Minal Pathak & Joyashree Roy & Shaurya Patel & Shreya Some & Purvi Vyas & Nandini Das & Priyadarshi Shukla, 2021. "Communicating climate change findings from IPCC reports: insights from outreach events in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-14, October.
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    4. Cameron Brick & Alexandra L. J. Freeman & Steven Wooding & William J. Skylark & Theresa M. Marteau & David J. Spiegelhalter, 2018. "Winners and losers: communicating the potential impacts of policies," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Evelina Trutnevyte & Céline Guivarch & Robert Lempert & Neil Strachan, 2016. "Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 373-379, April.
    6. Melissa A. Kenney & Anthony C. Janetos, 2020. "National indicators of climate changes, impacts, and vulnerability," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 1695-1704, December.
    7. Arjan Wardekker & Susanne Lorenz, 2019. "The visual framing of climate change impacts and adaptation in the IPCC assessment reports," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 273-292, September.
    8. Nikas, A. & Gambhir, A. & Trutnevyte, E. & Koasidis, K. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Mayer, D. & Zachmann, G. & Miguel, L.J. & Ferreras-Alonso, N. & Sognnaes, I. & Peters, G.P. & Colombo, E. & Howe, 2021. "Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PA).
    9. Benedikt Becsi & Daniela Hohenwallner-Ries & Torsten Grothmann & Andrea Prutsch & Tobias Huber & Herbert Formayer, 2020. "Towards better informed adaptation strategies: co-designing climate change impact maps for Austrian regions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 393-411, February.
    10. Yiwen Yang & Cheng Zhang & Z. Conrad Zhang, 2018. "Advances in catalytic transformations of carbohydrates and lignin in ionic liquids and mechanistic studies," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), May.
    11. Michael D. Gerst & Melissa A. Kenney & Irina Feygina, 2021. "Improving the usability of climate indicator visualizations through diagnostic design principles," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-22, June.
    12. Joseph Daron & Susanne Lorenz & Andrea Taylor & Suraje Dessai, 2021. "Communicating future climate projections of precipitation change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-20, May.
    13. Marta Terrado & Luz Calvo & Isadora Christel, 2022. "Towards more effective visualisations in climate services: good practices and recommendations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-26, May.
    14. Rosemarie McMahon & Michael Stauffacher & Reto Knutti, 2016. "The scientific veneer of IPCC visuals," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(3), pages 369-381, October.
    15. Astrid Kause & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Fai Fung & Andrea Taylor & Jason Lowe, 2020. "Visualizations of Projected Rainfall Change in the United Kingdom: An Interview Study about User Perceptions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-21, April.
    16. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Andrew Dugan, 2022. "On the differential correlates of climate change concerns and severe weather concerns: evidence from the World Risk Poll," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 1-24, April.

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