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Confident, likely, or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports

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  • Scott Janzwood

    (University of Waterloo)

Abstract

The uncertainty language framework used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is designed to encourage the consistent characterization and communication of uncertainty between chapters, working groups, and reports. However, the framework has not been updated since 2010, despite criticism that it was applied inconsistently in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and that the distinctions between the framework’s three language scales remain unclear. This article presents a mixed-methods analysis of the application and underlying interpretation of the uncertainty language framework by IPCC authors in the three special reports published since AR5. First, I present an analysis of uncertainty language term usage in three recent special reports: Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15), Climate Change and Land (SRCCL), and The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC). The language usage analysis highlights how many of the trends identified in previous reports—like the significant increase in the use of confidence terms—have carried forward into the special reports. These observed trends, along with ongoing debates in the literature on how to interpret the framework’s three language scales, inform an analysis of IPCC author experiences interpreting and implementing the framework. This discussion is informed by interviews with IPCC authors. Lastly, I propose several recommendations for clarifying the IPCC uncertainty language framework to address persistent sources of confusion highlighted by the authors.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott Janzwood, 2020. "Confident, likely, or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1655-1675, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:162:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02746-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02746-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Mastrandrea & Katharine Mach, 2011. "Treatment of uncertainties in IPCC Assessment Reports: past approaches and considerations for the Fifth Assessment Report," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 659-673, October.
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    7. Rachael Jonassen & Roger Pielke, 2011. "Improving conveyance of uncertainties in the findings of the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 745-753, October.
    8. Casey Helgeson & Richard Bradley & Brian Hill, 2018. "Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 517-525, August.
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    11. Terje Aven & Ortwin Renn, 2015. "An Evaluation of the Treatment of Risk and Uncertainties in the IPCC Reports on Climate Change," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 701-712, April.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Tomas Molina & Ernest Abadal, 2021. "The Evolution of Communicating the Uncertainty of Climate Change to Policymakers: A Study of IPCC Synthesis Reports," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-12, February.
    3. A. Kause & W. Bruine de Bruin & J. Persson & H. Thorén & L. Olsson & A. Wallin & S. Dessai & N. Vareman, 2022. "Confidence levels and likelihood terms in IPCC reports: a survey of experts from different scientific disciplines," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-18, July.
    4. Laura C. Bowling & Keith A. Cherkauer & Charlotte I. Lee & Janna L. Beckerman & Sylvie Brouder & Jonathan R. Buzan & Otto C. Doering & Jeffrey S. Dukes & Paul D. Ebner & Jane R. Frankenberger & Benjam, 2020. "Agricultural impacts of climate change in Indiana and potential adaptations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2005-2027, December.

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