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Uncertainties, Knowledge, and Futures in Foresight Studies — A Case of the Industry 4.0

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  • Andrzej Magruk

    (Bialystok University of Technology (Poland))

Abstract

The main purpose of this publication is an attempt to treat the phenomenon of uncertainty as one of the main research subjects in futures studies and not as the background for futures research – by answering the following research question: “What is the methodical relationship between the scope of the uncertainty phenomenon and the levels of knowledge and types of futures in the foresight approach?” This study uses the results of the analysis and criticism of the literature as the main research method. On this basis, deductive reasoning was carried out. Types of futures and the scope of uncertainty allowed to define the author's scale of knowledge levels are proposed. This paper has attempted to draw together three methodological fields: uncertainty, foresight, and knowledge. The author analyzed complex relations among the above areas on the basis of their characteristics, which are extensions of existing concepts available in the literature. In the author's opinion, conclusions from the results presented in this article can be a valuable contribution to the development of the area of of futures management. In the management of complex systems (such as Industry 4.0), from the foresight methodological point of view, it seems relevant to determine which specific uncertainties can be managed by which classes of foresight methods, and which foresight methods are determined by what level of knowledge. The results of the research presented in this publication may be used for creating a research methodology of technological foresight projects and as a complementary element of research devoted to the issues of the development of modern technologies, which include Industry 4.0.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrzej Magruk, 2020. "Uncertainties, Knowledge, and Futures in Foresight Studies — A Case of the Industry 4.0," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 14(4), pages 20-33.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:14:y:2020:i:4:p:20-33
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    File URL: https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/data/2021/01/17/1358263846/2-Magruk-20-33.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aven, Terje, 2010. "On how to define, understand and describe risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(6), pages 623-631.
    2. Aven, Terje, 2013. "Practical implications of the new risk perspectives," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 136-145.
    3. Alexander Sokolov & Alexander Chulok, 2012. "Russian Science and Technology Foresight – 2030: Key Features and First Results," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 12-25.
    4. J. Refsgaard & K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen & M. Drews & K. Halsnæs & E. Jeppesen & H. Madsen & A. Markandya & J. Olesen & J. Porter & J. Christensen, 2013. "The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies—A Danish water management example," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 337-359, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    uncertainty; knowledge; future; foresight; method; Industry 4.0;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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