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The spatial econometrics of the coronavirus pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Tamás Krisztin

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Philipp Piribauer

    (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO))

  • Michael Wögerer

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

Abstract

In this paper we use spatial econometric specifications to model daily infection rates of COVID-19 across countries. Using recent advances in Bayesian spatial econometric techniques, we particularly focus on the time-dependent importance of alternative spatial linkage structures such as the number of flight connections, relationships in international trade, and common borders. The flexible model setup allows to study the intensity and type of spatial spillover structures over time. Our results show notable spatial spillover mechanisms in the early stages of the virus with international flight linkages as the main transmission channel. In later stages, our model shows a sharp drop in the intensity spatial spillovers due to national travel bans, indicating that travel restrictions led to a reduction of cross-country spillovers.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamás Krisztin & Philipp Piribauer & Michael Wögerer, 2020. "The spatial econometrics of the coronavirus pandemic," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 209-218, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:lsprsc:v:13:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s12076-020-00254-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s12076-020-00254-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Kausik Chaudhuri & Anindita Chakrabarti & Jose Martin Lima & Joht Singh Chandan & Siddhartha Bandyopadhyay, 2020. "The interaction of ethnicity and deprivation on COVID-19 mortality risk: A retrospective ecological study," Discussion Papers 20-22, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    3. Mourao, Paulo & Bento, Ricardo, 2021. "Explaining COVID-19 contagion in Portuguese municipalities using spatial autocorrelation models," Revista Galega de Economía, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business., vol. 30(1), pages 1-12.
    4. Timo Mitze & Reinhold Kosfeld, 2022. "The propagation effect of commuting to work in the spatial transmission of COVID-19," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 5-31, January.
    5. Caria, Andrea & Delogu, Marco & Meleddu, Marta & Sotgiu, Giovanni, 2024. "People inflows as a pandemic trigger: Evidence from a quasi-experimental study," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Jošić Hrvoje, 2020. "The socio-economic catalysers of COVID-19 pandemic," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 6(2), pages 12-26, December.
    7. Rafael González‐Val & Fernando Sanz‐Gracia, 2022. "Urbanization and COVID‐19 incidence: A cross‐country investigation," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(2), pages 399-415, April.
    8. Alexandru Bănică & Ionel Muntele, 2023. "Local and regional factors of spatial differentiation of the excess mortality related to the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Manuela Fritz, 2022. "Wave after wave: determining the temporal lag in Covid-19 infections and deaths using spatial panel data from Germany," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-30, December.
    10. Chao Zhang & Si Chen & Chunyang Wang & Yi Zhao & Min Ao, 2022. "Population Flow and Epidemic Spread: Direct Impact and Spatial Spillover Effect," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    11. Massimiliano Crisci & Federico Benassi & Hamidreza Rabiei-Dastjerdi & Gavin McArdle, 2022. "Spatio-temporal variations and contextual factors of the supply of Airbnb in Rome. An initial investigation," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 237-253, August.
    12. Lívia Madeira Triaca & Felipe Garcia Ribeiro & César Augusto Oviedo Tejada, 2021. "Mosquitoes, birth rates and regional spillovers: Evidence from the Zika epidemic in Brazil," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(3), pages 795-813, June.
    13. Febrero Paños, Eladio & Bermejo Patón, Fernando, 2021. "Estimating the impact of COVID-19 on the Spanish economy with input-output analysis," Revista Galega de Economía, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business., vol. 30(1), pages 1-19.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coronavirus COVID-19; Spatial econometrics; Spatial spillovers; Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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