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The propagation effect of commuting to work in the spatial transmission of COVID-19

Author

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  • Timo Mitze

    (University of Southern Denmark, RWI and RCEA)

  • Reinhold Kosfeld

    (University of Kassel)

Abstract

This work is concerned with the spatiotemporal dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Germany. Our goal is twofold: first, we propose a novel spatial econometric model of the epidemic spread across NUTS-3 regions to identify the role played by commuting-to-work patterns for spatial disease transmission. Second, we explore if the imposed containment (lockdown) measures during the first pandemic wave in spring 2020 have affected the strength of this transmission channel. Our results from a spatial panel error correction model indicate that, without containment measures in place, commuting-to-work patterns were the first factor to significantly determine the spatial dynamics of daily COVID-19 cases in Germany. This indicates that job commuting, particularly during the initial phase of a pandemic wave, should be regarded and accordingly monitored as a relevant spatial transmission channel of COVID-19 in a system of economically interconnected regions. Our estimation results also provide evidence for the triggering role of local hot spots in disease transmission and point to the effectiveness of containment measures in mitigating the spread of the virus across German regions through reduced job commuting and other forms of mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Timo Mitze & Reinhold Kosfeld, 2022. "The propagation effect of commuting to work in the spatial transmission of COVID-19," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 5-31, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jgeosy:v:24:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10109-021-00349-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10109-021-00349-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Denis Fernandes Alves & Raul da Mota Silveira Neto & André Luis Squarize Chagas & Tatiane Almeida De Menezes, 2024. "Contagion by COVID-19 in the cities: commuting distance and residential density matter?," EconomiA, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 25(2), pages 189-209, February.
    2. Peter Congdon, 2022. "A Model for Highly Fluctuating Spatio-Temporal Infection Data, with Applications to the COVID Epidemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-17, May.
    3. Kuebart, Andreas & Stabler, Martin, 2023. "Waves in time, but not in space – an analysis of pandemic severity of COVID-19 in Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 47.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; Mobility; Job commuting; Containment measures; Lockdown; Spatial econometrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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