IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ehbiol/v52y2024ics1570677x23001223.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

People inflows as a pandemic trigger: Evidence from a quasi-experimental study

Author

Listed:
  • Caria, Andrea
  • Delogu, Marco
  • Meleddu, Marta
  • Sotgiu, Giovanni

Abstract

Although it has been established that population density can contribute to the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus, there is no evidence to suggest that economic activities, which imply a significant change in mobility, played a causal role in the unfolding of the pandemic. In this paper, we exploit the particular situation of Sardinia (Italy) in 2020 to examine how changes in mobility due to tourism inflows (a proxy of economic activities) influenced the development of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we identify a strong causal relationship between tourism flows and the emergence of COVID-19 cases in Sardinia. We estimate the elasticity of COVID-19 cases in relation to the share of tourists to be 4.1%, which increases to 5.1% when excluding local residents. Our analysis suggests that, in the absence of tools preventing the spread of infection, changes in population density due to economic activities trigger the pandemic spreading in previously unaffected locations. This work contributes to the debate on the complex relationship between COVID-19 and the characteristics of locations by providing helpful evidence for risk-prevention policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Caria, Andrea & Delogu, Marco & Meleddu, Marta & Sotgiu, Giovanni, 2024. "People inflows as a pandemic trigger: Evidence from a quasi-experimental study," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:52:y:2024:i:c:s1570677x23001223
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2023.101341
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1570677X23001223
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ehb.2023.101341?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcos Díaz Ramírez & Paolo Veneri & Alexander C. Lembcke, 2022. "Where did it hit harder? Understanding the geography of excess mortality during the COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 889-908, June.
    2. Damian Clarke & Kathya Tapia-Schythe, 2021. "Implementing the panel event study," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 21(4), pages 853-884, December.
    3. Karabulut, Gokhan & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Demir, Ender & Doker, Asli Cansin, 2020. "How pandemics affect tourism: International evidence," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Carozzi, Felipe & Provenzano, Sandro & Roth, Sefi, 2022. "Urban density and COVID-19: understanding the US experience," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117261, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Valerio Della Corte & Claudio Doria & Giacomo Oddo, 2023. "The impact of COVID‐19 on international tourism flows to Italy: Evidence from mobile phone data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1378-1407, May.
    6. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gorback, Caitlin & Redding, Stephen J., 2022. "JUE Insight: How much does COVID-19 increase with mobility? Evidence from New York and four other U.S. cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    7. Brantly Callaway & Andrew Goodman-Bacon & Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna, 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with a Continuous Treatment," Papers 2107.02637, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    8. José Luis Montiel Olea & Carolin Pflueger, 2013. "A Robust Test for Weak Instruments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 358-369, July.
    9. González-Val, Rafael & Marcén, Miriam, 2022. "Mass gathering events and the spread of infectious diseases: Evidence from the early growth phase of COVID-19," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    10. Damian Clarke & Kathya Tapia-Schythe, 2021. "Implementing the panel event study," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 21(4), pages 853-884, December.
    11. Ascani, Andrea & Faggian, Alessandra & Montresor, Sandro & Palma, Alessandro, 2021. "Mobility in times of pandemics: Evidence on the spread of COVID19 in Italy's labour market areas," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 444-454.
    12. Batalha, Mafalda & Gonçalves, Duarte & Peralta, Susana & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2022. "The virus that devastated tourism: The impact of covid-19 on the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    13. Smriti Mallapaty, 2020. "What the cruise-ship outbreaks reveal about COVID-19," Nature, Nature, vol. 580(7801), pages 18-18, April.
    14. Armillei, Francesco & Filippucci, Francesco & Fletcher, Thomas, 2021. "Did Covid-19 hit harder in peripheral areas? The case of Italian municipalities," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    15. Isaiah Andrews & James H. Stock & Liyang Sun, 2019. "Weak Instruments in Instrumental Variables Regression: Theory and Practice," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 727-753, August.
    16. Tamás Krisztin & Philipp Piribauer & Michael Wögerer, 2020. "The spatial econometrics of the coronavirus pandemic," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 209-218, December.
    17. Imad A. Moosa & Ibrahim N. Khatatbeh, 2021. "The density paradox: Are densely‐populated regions more vulnerable to Covid‐19?," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1575-1588, September.
    18. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Borra, Cristina & Rivera-Garrido, Noelia & Sevilla, Almudena, 2021. "Early adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions and COVID-19 mortality," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    19. Laroze, Denise & Neumayer, Eric & Plümper, Thomas, 2021. "COVID-19 does not stop at open borders: Spatial contagion among local authority districts during England's first wave," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lyons, Seán & Mao, Likun & Nolan, Anne & O’Sullivan, Vincent, 2023. "The effect of “smoky” coal bans on chronic lung disease among older people in Ireland," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. González-Val, Rafael & Marcén, Miriam, 2022. "Mass gathering events and the spread of infectious diseases: Evidence from the early growth phase of COVID-19," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    3. Haddou, Samira, 2024. "Determinants of CDS in core and peripheral European countries: A comparative study during crisis and calm periods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Bensch, Gunther & Gotz, Gunnar & Peters, Jörg, 2020. "Effects of rural electrification on employment: A comment on Dinkelman (2011)," Ruhr Economic Papers 840, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Vu, Trung V., 2020. "Economic complexity and health outcomes: A global perspective," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    6. Michelle Yin & Garima Siwach & Dajun Lin, 2023. "Vocational Rehabilitation Services and Labor Market Outcomes for Transition‐Age Youth with Disabilities in Maine," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 166-197, January.
    7. David Escamilla-Guerrero & Edward Kosack & Zachary Ward, 2023. "The Impact of Violence during the Mexican Revolution on Migration to the United States," NBER Working Papers 31531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Hilt, Eric & Jaremski, Matthew & Rahn, Wendy, 2022. "When Uncle Sam introduced Main Street to Wall Street: Liberty Bonds and the transformation of American finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 194-216.
    9. MacKinnon, James G., 2023. "Fast cluster bootstrap methods for linear regression models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 52-71.
    10. Di Matteo, Dante & Mariotti, Ilaria & Rossi, Federica, 2023. "Transport infrastructure and economic performance: An evaluation of the Milan-Bologna high-speed rail corridor," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    11. Wang, Wenjie, 2021. "Wild Bootstrap for Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments and Few Clusters," MPRA Paper 106227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Kai Barron & Charles D. H. Parry & Debbie Bradshaw & Rob Dorrington & Pam Groenewald & Ria Laubscher & Richard Matzopoulos, 2024. "Alcohol, Violence, and Injury-Induced Mortality: Evidence from a Modern-Day Prohibition," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 938-955, July.
    13. Ethan Ilzetzki, 2024. "Learning by Necessity: Government Demand, Capacity Constraints, and Productivity Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(8), pages 2436-2471, August.
    14. Leonard Le Roux & Johanna Choumert-Nkolo, 2023. "Internal Migration and Energy Poverty," Working Papers 2023.01, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    15. Betts, Alexander & Flinder Stierna, Maria & Omata, Naohiko & Sterck, Olivier, 2023. "Refugees welcome? Inter-group interaction and host community attitude formation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    16. Betts,Alexander Milton Stedman & Stierna,Maria Flinder & Omata,Naohiko & Sterck,Olivier Christian Brigitte, 2022. "Social Cohesion and Refugee-Host Interactions : Evidence from East Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9917, The World Bank.
    17. Vincent Jerald Ramos, 2024. "Extreme Lockdowns and the Gendered Informalization of Employment: Evidence from the Philippines," Work, Employment & Society, British Sociological Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1197-1222, October.
    18. Anubhav Gupta & Thomas Luke Spreen, 2024. "Do tax credits benefit charities? Evidence from two states," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(1), pages 94-109, January.
    19. Kung, Claryn S.J. & Kunz, Johannes S. & Shields, Michael A., 2023. "COVID-19 lockdowns and changes in loneliness among young people in the U.K," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    20. Wei, Yao & Anselmi, Laura & Munford, Luke & Sutton, Matt, 2023. "The impact of devolution on experienced health and well-being," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Causality; Mobility; Difference-in-differences; Instrumental variable;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • Z38 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Policy
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:52:y:2024:i:c:s1570677x23001223. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622964 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.