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Impact of VAT Reform on Swedish Restaurants: A Synthetic Control Group Approach

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  • Björn Falkenhall
  • Jonas Månsson
  • Sofia Tano

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the impact on firms of the value added tax (VAT) reform that took effect in Sweden on 1 January 2012 for restaurant and catering services. Unlike previous research, we use a synthetic control group approach to construct our counterfactual. Our analysis shows that the VAT reduction had a positive effect on turnover, total wages, employment, profit margins, and net entry of firms. The effects of the reform tend to decrease over time. In all, the results point to an overall better performance for the restaurant industry compared with what it would have been in absence of the reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Björn Falkenhall & Jonas Månsson & Sofia Tano, 2020. "Impact of VAT Reform on Swedish Restaurants: A Synthetic Control Group Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(2), pages 824-850, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:122:y:2020:i:2:p:824-850
    DOI: 10.1111/sjoe.12340
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    Cited by:

    1. Nils Verheuvel & Joost Witteman & Marilou Vlaanderen, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method for Dutch Policy Evaluation," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 51-83, March.
    2. Funke, Michael & Terasa, Raphael, 2022. "Has Germany’s temporary VAT rates cut as part of the COVID-19 fiscal stimulus boosted growth?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 450-473.
    3. Peng, Fei & Peng, Langchuan & Wang, Zheng, 2021. "How do VAT reforms in the service sectors impact TFP in the manufacturing sector: Firm-level evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).

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