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Escaping epidemics through migration? Quarantine measures under incomplete information about infection risk

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  • Mesnard, Alice
  • Seabright, Paul

Abstract

This paper explores the implications for public policy of the fact that individuals have incomplete but private information about their exposure to infectious disease when they make migration decisions. In a 2-period model we study conditions under which the presence of quarantine measures may lead to inefficient outcomes by strengthening individuals' interest in migration to escape centres of disease and thereby imposing negative externalities on other uninfected individuals. We show first that when the disease has an epicentre, the marginal migrant imposes a net negative externality. Secondly, quarantine policies may sometimes encourage migration instead of discouraging it. Thirdly, even when they succeed in discouraging migration, quarantine policies may lower social welfare, and even increase overall disease incidence, if they go too far, thereby discouraging those intra-marginal migrants for whom private benefits exceed private costs by more than the negative externality they impose on others.

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  • Mesnard, Alice & Seabright, Paul, 2009. "Escaping epidemics through migration? Quarantine measures under incomplete information about infection risk," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(7-8), pages 931-938, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:93:y:2009:i:7-8:p:931-938
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Geoffard, Pierre-Yves & Philipson, Tomas, 1996. "Rational Epidemics and Their Public Control," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 603-624, August.
    2. Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of AIDS," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 549-573.
    3. Seabright, Paul & Mesnard, Alice, 2008. "Migration and The Equilibrium Prevalence of Infectious Diseases," CEPR Discussion Papers 6651, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of the AIDS Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 5428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Martin Karlsson & Stefan Pichler, 2015. "Demographic consequences of HIV," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(4), pages 1097-1135, October.
    3. Saak, Alexander E., 2012. "Infectious disease detection with private information:," IFPRI discussion papers 1162, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Boto-García, David, 2023. "Investigating the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    5. Alexander E. Saak & David A. Hennessy, 2018. "A model of reporting and controlling outbreaks by public health agencies," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(1), pages 21-64, July.
    6. Sheikh Shahnawaz, 2011. "Infectious disease outbreak and trade policy formulation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 2959-2967.
    7. Nakamura, Nobuyuki & Suzuki, Aya, 2021. "COVID-19 and the intentions to migrate from developing countries: Evidence from online search activities in Southeast Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Fenichel, Eli P., 2013. "Economic considerations for social distancing and behavioral based policies during an epidemic," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 440-451.

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