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Measuring the Economic Risk of Epidemics

Author

Listed:
  • Ilan Noy
  • Nguyen Doan
  • Benno Ferrarini
  • Donghyun Park

Abstract

We measure the economic risk of epidemics at a geo-spatially detailed resolution. In addition to data about the epidemic hazard prediction, we use data from 2014-2019 to compute measures for exposure, vulnerability, and resilience of the local economy to the shock of an epidemic. Using a battery of proxies for these four concepts, we calculate the hazard (the zoonotic source of a possible epidemic), the principal components of exposure and vulnerability to it, and of the economy’s resilience (its ability of the recover rapidly from the shock). We find that the economic risk of epidemics is particularly high in most Africa, the Indian subcontinent, China, and Southeast Asia. These results are consistent when comparing an ad-hoc (equal) weighting algorithm for the four components of the index, with one based on an estimation algorithm using Disability-Adjusted Life Years associated with communicable diseases.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilan Noy & Nguyen Doan & Benno Ferrarini & Donghyun Park, 2019. "Measuring the Economic Risk of Epidemics," CESifo Working Paper Series 8016, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Martin Karlsson & Stefan Pichler, 2015. "Demographic consequences of HIV," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(4), pages 1097-1135, October.
    7. Keogh-Brown, Marcus Richard & Smith, Richard David, 2008. "The economic impact of SARS: How does the reality match the predictions?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 110-120, October.
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    9. Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, 2018. "Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 429-451, April.
    10. Toph Allen & Kris A. Murray & Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio & Stephen S. Morse & Carlo Rondinini & Moreno Di Marco & Nathan Breit & Kevin J. Olival & Peter Daszak, 2017. "Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
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    12. Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2012. "Epidemics and fertility in a Malthusian economy," Post-Print halshs-00669487, HAL.
    13. Ilan Noy, 2016. "The socio-economics of cyclones," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(4), pages 343-345, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vu Nguyen Doan & Ilan Noy, 2021. "A Comprehensive Measure of Lifeyears Lost due to COVID‐19 in 2020: A Comparison across Countries and with Past Disasters," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(4), pages 553-561, September.
    2. Fisayo Fagbemi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2020. "Covid-19 and Socioeconomic Crises in Africa: Overview of the Prevailing Incidents," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/102, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    3. Viral V. Acharya & Zhengyang Jiang & Robert J. Richmond & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2020. "Divided We Fall: International Health and Trade Coordination During a Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 28176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ilan Noy & Nguyen Doan & Benno Ferrarini & Donghyun Park, 2020. "Measuring the Economic Risk of COVID‐19," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 11(4), pages 413-423, September.
    5. Nana Liu & Zeshui Xu & Marinko Skare, 2021. "The research on COVID-19 and economy from 2019 to 2020: analysis from the perspective of bibliometrics," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 217-268, June.
    6. van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2021. "The political economy of the next pandemic," ISS Working Papers - General Series 678, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    7. Sándor Kovács & Mohammad Fazle Rabbi & Domicián Máté, 2021. "Global Food Security, Economic and Health Risk Assessment of the COVID-19 Epidemic," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-16, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    epidemic; influenza; risk measurement; economic impact;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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