IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jagbes/v26y2021i2d10.1007_s13253-020-00423-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Correcting Bias in Survival Probabilities for Partially Monitored Populations via Integrated Models

Author

Listed:
  • Blanca Sarzo

    (Valencia, Spain; and Department of Statistics and O.R., University of Valencia
    University of Edinburgh
    University of Valencia)

  • Ruth King

    (University of Edinburgh)

  • David Conesa

    (University of Valencia)

  • Jonas Hentati-Sundberg

    (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)

Abstract

We provide an integrated capture–recapture–recovery framework for partially monitored populations. In these studies, live resightings are only observable at a set of monitored locations, so that if an individual leaves these specific locations, they become unavailable for capture. Additional ring-recovery data reduce the corresponding bias obtained in the survival probability estimates from capture–recapture data due to the confounding with colony dispersal. We derive an explicit efficient likelihood expression for the integrated capture–recapture–recovery data, and state the associated sufficient statistics. We demonstrate the significant improvements in the estimation of the survival probabilities using the integrated approach for a colony of guillemots (Uria aalge), where we additionally specify a hierarchical approach to deal with low sample size over the early period of the study. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Suggested Citation

  • Blanca Sarzo & Ruth King & David Conesa & Jonas Hentati-Sundberg, 2021. "Correcting Bias in Survival Probabilities for Partially Monitored Populations via Integrated Models," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 26(2), pages 200-219, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jagbes:v:26:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s13253-020-00423-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s13253-020-00423-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13253-020-00423-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13253-020-00423-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simon J. Bonner & Byron J. T. Morgan & Ruth King, 2010. "Continuous Covariates in Mark-Recapture-Recovery Analysis: A Comparison of Methods," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 1256-1265, December.
    2. P. Besbeas & S. N. Freeman & B. J. T. Morgan & E. A. Catchpole, 2002. "Integrating Mark–Recapture–Recovery and Census Data to Estimate Animal Abundance and Demographic Parameters," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 540-547, September.
    3. Ruth King & Stephen P. Brooks & Chiara Mazzetta & Stephen N. Freeman & Byron J. T. Morgan, 2008. "Identifying and diagnosing population declines: a Bayesian assessment of lapwings in the UK," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 57(5), pages 609-632, December.
    4. R. King, 2003. "Closed-form likelihoods for Arnason--Schwarz models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 90(2), pages 435-444, June.
    5. E. A. Catchpole & B. J. T. Morgan & G. Tavecchia, 2008. "A new method for analysing discrete life history data with missing covariate values," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(2), pages 445-460, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shen‐Ming Lee & Wen‐Han Hwang & Jean de Dieu Tapsoba, 2016. "Estimation in closed capture–recapture models when covariates are missing at random," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1294-1304, December.
    2. Jakub Stoklosa & Wen-Han Hwang & Sheng-Hai Wu & Richard Huggins, 2011. "Heterogeneous Capture–Recapture Models with Covariates: A Partial Likelihood Approach for Closed Populations," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 1659-1665, December.
    3. Besbeas, P.T. & McCrea, R.S. & Morgan, B.J.T., 2022. "Selecting age structure in integrated population models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 473(C).
    4. Axel Finke & Ruth King & Alexandros Beskos & Petros Dellaportas, 2019. "Efficient Sequential Monte Carlo Algorithms for Integrated Population Models," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 24(2), pages 204-224, June.
    5. McCrea, R.S., 2012. "Sufficient statistic likelihood construction for age- and time-dependent multi-state joint recapture and recovery data," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 357-359.
    6. Dennis, Emily B. & Kéry, Marc & Morgan, Byron J.T. & Coray, Armin & Schaub, Michael & Baur, Bruno, 2021. "Integrated modelling of insect population dynamics at two temporal scales," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 441(C).
    7. Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita & José J. Lahoz-Monfort, 2017. "Species occupancy estimation and imperfect detection: shall surveys continue after the first detection?," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 101(4), pages 381-398, October.
    8. Zhang, Hongmei & Ghosh, Kaushik & Ghosh, Pulak, 2012. "Sampling designs via a multivariate hypergeometric-Dirichlet process model for a multi-species assemblage with unknown heterogeneity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 2562-2573.
    9. Nichols, J.M. & Spendelow, J.A. & Nichols, J.D., 2017. "Using Optimal Transport Theory to Estimate Transition Probabilities in Metapopulation Dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 359(C), pages 311-319.
    10. Leo Polansky & Ken B. Newman & Lara Mitchell, 2021. "Improving inference for nonlinear state‐space models of animal population dynamics given biased sequential life stage data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 77(1), pages 352-361, March.
    11. Chiara Mazzetta & Steve Brooks & Stephen N. Freeman, 2007. "On Smoothing Trends in Population Index Modeling," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 1007-1014, December.
    12. Abadi, Fitsum & Gimenez, Olivier & Jakober, Hans & Stauber, Wolfgang & Arlettaz, Raphaël & Schaub, Michael, 2012. "Estimating the strength of density dependence in the presence of observation errors using integrated population models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1-9.
    13. José J. Lahoz-Monfort & Michael P. Harris & Sarah Wanless & Stephen N. Freeman & Byron J. T. Morgan, 2017. "Bringing It All Together: Multi-species Integrated Population Modelling of a Breeding Community," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 22(2), pages 140-160, June.
    14. Simone Tenan & Paolo Pedrini & Natalia Bragalanti & Claudio Groff & Chris Sutherland, 2017. "Data integration for inference about spatial processes: A model-based approach to test and account for data inconsistency," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(10), pages 1-18, October.
    15. Soumen Dey & Mohan Delampady & Ravishankar Parameshwaran & N. Samba Kumar & Arjun Srivathsa & K. Ullas Karanth, 2017. "Bayesian Methods for Estimating Animal Abundance at Large Spatial Scales Using Data from Multiple Sources," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 22(2), pages 111-139, June.
    16. Mosnier, A. & Doniol-Valcroze, T. & Gosselin, J.-F. & Lesage, V. & Measures, L.N. & Hammill, M.O., 2015. "Insights into processes of population decline using an integrated population model: The case of the St. Lawrence Estuary beluga (Delphinapterus leucas)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 314(C), pages 15-31.
    17. Ming Zhou & Rachel S. McCrea & Eleni Matechou & Diana J. Cole & Richard A. Griffiths, 2019. "Removal models accounting for temporary emigration," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 75(1), pages 24-35, March.
    18. Gimenez, Olivier & Rossi, Vivien & Choquet, Rémi & Dehais, Camille & Doris, Blaise & Varella, Hubert & Vila, Jean-Pierre & Pradel, Roger, 2007. "State-space modelling of data on marked individuals," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 206(3), pages 431-438.
    19. Barraquand, Frédéric & Gimenez, Olivier, 2019. "Integrating multiple data sources to fit matrix population models for interacting species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 411(C).
    20. S. A. Sisson & Y. Fan, 2009. "Towards automating model selection for a mark–recapture–recovery analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 58(2), pages 247-266, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jagbes:v:26:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s13253-020-00423-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.