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Has the wage Phillips curve changed in the euro area?

Author

Listed:
  • Guido Bulligan

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Eliana Viviano

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Increasing evidence shows that in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, in the euro area, the relationship between price inflation and economic slack became stronger. Instead, there is no clear evidence of a strong(er) relationship between wage inflation and unemployment. In this paper, we estimate a Phillips curve with time-varying coefficients separately for Italy, Spain, Germany and France and we find that, with the exception of Germany, after the global financial crisis, the sensitivity of hourly wage changes to labour market slack increased. Second, by the use of administrative microdata, available only for Italy, we relate daily wage changes to the local unemployment rate. The results confirm the steepening of the Phillips curve after 2008, also when controlling for composition effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Bulligan & Eliana Viviano, 2017. "Has the wage Phillips curve changed in the euro area?," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:izalpo:v:6:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1186_s40173-017-0087-z
    DOI: 10.1186/s40173-017-0087-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Siena Daniele, & Zago Riccardo., 2021. "Job Polarization and the Flattening of the Price Phillips Curve," Working papers 819, Banque de France.
    2. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Corrado Macchiarelli & Nikolitsa Lampropoulou, 2019. "Transition Dynamics in European Labour Markets During Crisis and Recovery," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(2), pages 213-234, June.
    3. Effrosyni Adamopoulou & Emmanuele Bobbio & Marta De Philippis & Federico Giorgi, 2016. "Wage rigidities and business cycle fluctuations: a linked employer-employee analysis," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-32, December.
    4. Erzsébet Éva Nagy & Veronika Tengely, 2018. "The external and domestic drivers of inflation: the case study of Hungary," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and deglobalisation, volume 100, pages 149-172, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Nathan Sussman & Osnat Zohar, 2016. "Has Inflation Targeting Become Less Credible? Oil Prices, Global Aggregate Demand and Inflation Expectations during the Global Financial Crisis," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2016.13, Bank of Israel.
    6. Francesco De Palma & KSamuel Ligonnière & Jamel Saadaoui & Yann Thommen, 2022. "The Role of Wage Bargaining Institutions in the Phillips curve Flattening," Working Papers REM 2022/0236, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2021. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-586, August.
    8. David N. F. Bell & David G. Blanchflower, 2021. "Underemployment in the United States and Europe," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 74(1), pages 56-94, January.
    9. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    10. Alexius, Annika & Lundholm, Michael & Nielsen, Linnea, 2020. "Is the Phillips curve dead? International evidence," Research Papers in Economics 2020:1, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    11. Schuffels, Johannes & Kool, Clemens & Lieb, Lenard & van Veen, Tom, 2024. "Is the slope of the euro area Phillips curve steeper than it seems? Heterogeneity and identification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    12. Yhlas SOVBETOV, 2019. "Phillips Curve Estimation During Tranquil and Recessionary Periods: Evidence From Panel Analysis," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 69(1), pages 23-41, June.
    13. Lehner, Lukas & Ramskogler, Paul & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2022. "Begging thy coworker – Labor market dualization and the slow-down of wage growth in Europe," INET Oxford Working Papers 2022-04, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    14. Giulia Bovini & Eliana Viviano, 2018. "The Italian "employment-rich" recovery: a closer look," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 461, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Guido Bulligan & Elisa Guglielminetti & Eliana Viviano, 2017. "Wage growth in the euro area: where do we stand?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 413, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Bonam, Dennis & de Haan, Jakob & van Limbergen, Duncan, 2021. "Time-varying wage Phillips curves in the euro area with a new measure for labor market slack," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 157-171.
    17. Hammer, Luisa & Hertweck, Matthias Sebastian, 2022. "EU Enlargement and (Temporary) Migration: Effects on Labour Market Outcomes in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264082, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Silvia Camussi & Fabrizio Colonna & Francesca Modena, 2022. "Temporary contracts: an analysis of the North-South gap in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 707, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Antonio M. Conti & Elisa Guglielminetti & Marianna Riggi, 2019. "Labour productivity and the wageless recovery," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1257, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. A. Moutaabbid, 2024. "Les determinants de la dynamique des salaires en France : approches macro et sectorielles par la courbe de Phillips," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers 2024-20, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    21. Schäfer Benjamin, 2018. "The Impact of the Crisis and Unconventional Monetary Policy on European Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from a Three-Period Structural Model and Six Countries," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 69(2), pages 87-110, August.
    22. Dovì, Max-Sebastian & Koester, Gerrit & Nickel, Christiane, 2021. "Addressing the endogeneity of slack in Phillips Curves," Working Paper Series 2619, European Central Bank.
    23. Byrne, David & Zekaite, Zivile, 2018. "Missing wage growth in the euro area: is the wage Philips curve non-linear?," Economic Letters 9/EL/18, Central Bank of Ireland.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wage growth; Phillips curve; Parameter instability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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