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Has inflation targeting become less credible?

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  • Nathan Sussman
  • Osnat Zohar

Abstract

Beginning with the global financial crisis (2008) the correlation between crude oil prices and medium-term and forward inflation expectations increased leading to fears of their un-anchoring. Using the first principal component of commodity prices as a measure for global aggregate demand, we decompose nominal oil prices to a global demand factor and remaining factors. Using a Phillips Curve framework we find a structural change after the collapse of Lehman Brothers when inflation expectations reacted more strongly to global aggregate demand conditions embedded in oil prices. Within this framework we cannot reject the hypothesis that expectations remained anchored.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan Sussman & Osnat Zohar, 2018. "Has inflation targeting become less credible?," BIS Working Papers 729, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:729
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    Cited by:

    1. James Yetman, 2020. "The pass-through from short-horizon to long-horizon inflation expectations," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 111, pages 55-66, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Takuji Fueki & Jouchi Nakajima & Shinsuke Ohyama & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2021. "Identifying oil price shocks and their consequences: The role of expectations in the crude oil market," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 53-76, April.
    3. Paweł Baranowski & Wirginia Doryń & Tomasz Łyziak & Ewa Stanisławska, 2020. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: empirical evidence on an inflation targeting economy," NBP Working Papers 326, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    4. Andrew Filardo & Jacopo Lombardi & Carlos Montoro, 2018. "Monetary policy spillovers, global commodity prices and cooperation," BIS Working Papers 696, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Nadine Baudot-Trajtenberg & Itamar Caspi, 2018. "Measuring the importance of global factors in determining inflation in Israel," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and deglobalisation, volume 100, pages 183-208, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation targeting; inflation expectations; monetary policy; oil prices; anchoring; credibility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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