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The external and domestic drivers of inflation: the case study of Hungary

In: Globalisation and deglobalisation

Author

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  • Erzsébet Éva Nagy

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary))

  • Veronika Tengely

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary))

Abstract

Factors that have tended to result in declining inflation rates worldwide since 2013 include subdued global economic activity, declining energy and commodity prices, technological innovation and inflation expectations that are anchored at historically low levels around the world. The relationship between globalisation and inflation is a popular research topic among economists. According to much of the literature, the influence of globalisation and external factors on national inflation rates has increased in recent years. In this paper we investigate how external and domestic drivers affect inflation in Hungary. The country is an interesting case study, since its openness has grown significantly. Indeed, Hungary is now one of the most open economies in the EU. The Hungarian experience could thus be interesting for countries with an increasing trend towards openness. Using several statistical methods, we examined and analysed the impact of external and domestic drivers of Hungarian inflation, and how these external factors and their effect on inflation have varied in time. Our results show that the role of external factors in domestic inflation developments has strengthened in recent years. Especially after 2012, changes in inflation in Hungary were influenced mainly by external effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Erzsébet Éva Nagy & Veronika Tengely, 2018. "The external and domestic drivers of inflation: the case study of Hungary," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and deglobalisation, volume 100, pages 149-172, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisbpc:100-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Combes, Jean-Louis & Lesuisse, Pierre, 2022. "Inflation and unemployment, new insights during the EMU accession," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 124-142.
    2. Lahlou, Kamal & Bennouna , Hicham, 2022. "Contributions des facteurs domestiques et externes à la dynamique de l’inflation au Maroc," Document de travail 2022-1, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.
    3. György Matolcsy & Márton Nagy & Dániel Palotai & Barnabás Virág, 2020. "Inflation in the Digital Age: Inflation Measurement and Bias in the 21st Century," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 19(1), pages 5-36.
    4. Urmat Dzhunkeev, 2024. "Forecasting Inflation in Russia Using Gradient Boosting and Neural Networks," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(1), pages 53-76, March.

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