The Pacific Salmon Treaty: A Century of Debate and an Uncertain Future

Negotiations on a Canada-US Pacific salmon treaty began in 1908 but the first comprehensive treaty was not achieved until 1985. At that time, catches and landed values in the salmon fishery were near record levels and both countries viewed the agreement as a means of enhancing their individual prosperity. After a short period of co-operation, the 1985 treaty was undermined by arguments over catch sharing and the failure to rebuild some important salmon stocks. A revised treaty, agreed upon in 1999, established conservation of salmon as a priority and included a side-payment, in the form of two endowment funds designed in part to appease Canadian concern over catch imbalances. Major shifts in abundances combined with significant reductions in the value of the fishery were key factors in the negotiations. In this paper, we use the graph model for conflict resolution to examine the stability of the revised salmon treaty. Our assessment suggests that the treaty will be stable if the side-payment is maintained or enhanced even if both countries pursue aggressive fishing strategies. If the side-payment is not maintained, then it is likely that all groups will attempt to maximize their catch and Canada will seek a renegotiation of the treaty.