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Looking for a J-shaped development-fertility relationship: Do advances in development really reverse fertility declines?

Author

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  • Fumitaka Furuoka

    (Universiti Malaysia Sabah)

Abstract

In their article published in the “Nature” journal, Myrskylä et al. (2009) claimed that in highly developed countries development-fertility relationship becomes J-shaped. This means that further advances in economic and social development can reverse declining fertility rates. The present paper employs threshold regression analysis (Hansen 2000) to examine the existence of the proposed J-shaped fertility-development curve. The findings indicate that the threshold value of human development index is 0.777. The threshold regression analysis reveals that in countries with a low human development index higher levels of HDI tend to be associated with lower fertility rates. Likewise, in countries with a high human development index, higher levels of HDI tend to be associated with lower fertility rates, albeit the relationship is weak. Thus, the findings of this study do not support the proposition that advances in development can reverse fertility decline, neither do they confirm the existence of the J-shaped development-fertility relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Fumitaka Furuoka, 2009. "Looking for a J-shaped development-fertility relationship: Do advances in development really reverse fertility declines?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 3067-3074.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00739
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    2. Hansen Bruce E., 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2014. "Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007)," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 187-221, May.
    2. Chor Foon Tang & Nai-Peng Tey, 2017. "Low fertility in Malaysia: Can it be explained?," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 101-118, June.
    3. Louise Rawlings & Stephen J. Robson & Pauline Ding, 2016. "Socioeconomic Response by Age Group to the Australian Baby Bonus: A Multivariate Analysis of Birth Data from 2001-13," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 19(2), pages 111-129.
    4. Masahiko Aoki, 2011. "The Five-Phases of Economic Development and Institutional Evolution in China and Japan," Development Economics Working Papers 23196, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    5. Ansgar Hudde, 2018. "Societal Agreement on Gender Role Attitudes and Childlessness in 38 Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 745-767, December.
    6. Yoko Nakagaki, 2019. "Convex relationship between fertility and gender gap," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 2014-2026.
    7. Angela Luci & Olivier Thevenon, 2010. "Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in OECD countries?," Working Papers hal-00520948, HAL.
    8. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2010. "The Fertility-Development Relationship in the United States: New Evidence from Threshold Regression Analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 1808-1822.
    9. Thomas Anderson & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2015. "Low Fertility, Socioeconomic Development, and Gender Equity," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(3), pages 381-407, September.
    10. Maricruz Lacalle-Calderon & Manuel Perez-Trujillo & Isabel Neira, 2017. "Fertility and Economic Development: Quantile Regression Evidence on the Inverse J-shaped Pattern," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31, February.
    11. Creina Day, 2018. "Inverse J Effect of Economic Growth on Fertility: A Model of Gender Wages and Maternal Time Substitution," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 577-587, December.
    12. Hudde, Ansgar, 2016. "Fertility Is Low When There Is No Societal Agreement on a Specific Gender Role Model," EconStor Preprints 142175, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    13. Zubin Shroff & Márcia C. Castro, 2011. "The potential impact of intermarriage on the population decline of the Parsis of Mumbai, India," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(17), pages 545-564.
    14. Piotr Dominiak & Ewa Lechman & Anna Okonowicz, 2015. "Fertility Rebound And Economic Growth. New Evidence For 18 Countries Over The Period 1970–2011," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 10(1), pages 91-112, March.
    15. Jillienne Haglund & David L Richards, 2018. "Enforcement of sexual violence law in post-civil conflict societies," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(3), pages 280-295, May.
    16. Creina Day, 2016. "Can Theory Explain the Evidence on Fertility Decline Reversal?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 49(2), pages 136-145, February.
    17. KOMATSU Sho & MA Xinxin & SUZUKI Aya, 2022. "Influence of E-commerce on Birth Rate: Evidence from rural China based on county-level longitudinal data," Discussion papers 22101, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Takashi Oshio, 2019. "Is a positive association between female employment and fertility still spurious in developed countries?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(45), pages 1277-1288.
    19. Waseem Khadim & Saddam Ilyas & Bilal Mehmood, 2016. "Of Inflation and Growth Nexus in BRIMC Economies," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(1), pages 32-45, January.
    20. Rainald Borck, 2011. "Adieu Rabenmutter - The Effect of Culture on Fertility, Female Labour Supply, the Gender Wage Gap and Childcare," CESifo Working Paper Series 3337, CESifo.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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