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Italy’s Path to Very Low Fertility: The Adequacy of Economic and Second Demographic Transition Theories

Author

Listed:
  • David I. Kertzer

    (Brown University)

  • Michael J. White

    (Brown University)

  • Laura Bernardi

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

  • Giuseppe Gabrielli

    (University of Bari)

Abstract

The deep drop of the fertility rate in Italy to among the lowest in the world challenges contemporary theories of childbearing and family building. Among high-income countries, Italy was presumed to have characteristics of family values and female labor force participation that would favor higher fertility than its European neighbors to the north. We test competing economic and cultural explanations, drawing on new nationally representative, longitudinal data to examine first union, first birth, and second birth. Our event history analysis finds some support for economic determinants of family formation and fertility, but the clear importance of regional differences and of secularization suggests that such an explanation is at best incomplete and that cultural and ideational factors must be considered.

Suggested Citation

  • David I. Kertzer & Michael J. White & Laura Bernardi & Giuseppe Gabrielli, 2009. "Italy’s Path to Very Low Fertility: The Adequacy of Economic and Second Demographic Transition Theories," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(1), pages 89-115, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:25:y:2009:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-008-9159-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-008-9159-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Harka, Elona & Nunziata, Luca & Rocco, Lorenzo, 2021. "The Alabaster Ceiling: The Gender Legacy of the Papal States," IZA Discussion Papers 14719, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Francesca Modena & Concetta Rondinelli & Fabio Sabatini, 2014. "Economic Insecurity and Fertility Intentions: The Case of Italy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S1), pages 233-255, May.
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    8. Maria Letizia Zanier & Isabella Crespi, 2015. "Facing the Gender Gap in Aging: Italian Women’s Pension in the European Context," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-22, November.
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    10. Felix Glaser & Rene Wiesinger, 2024. "Life After Loss: The Causal Effect of Parental Death on Daughters' Fertility," Economics working papers 2024-01, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    11. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    12. Sieds, 2015. "Complete Volume LXIX n. 2 2015," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 69(2), pages 1-244, April-Jun.
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    14. Roberto Impicciatore & Francesco C. Billari, 2012. "Secularization, Union Formation Practices, and Marital Stability: Evidence from Italy [Sécularisation, Pratiques de Mise en Union et Stabilité des Mariages: Le Cas de l’Italie]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 28(2), pages 119-138, May.
    15. Charalampos Dantis & Ester Lucia Rizzi & Thomas Baudin, 2023. "The Association between Religiosity and Fertility Intentions Via Grandparenting: Evidence from GGS Data," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-24, December.
    16. Doo-Sub Kim & Alessandra De Rose & Giuseppe Gabrielli & Anna Paterno, 2015. "Effects Of The Economic Crisis On Fertility:A Comparison Between South Korea And Italy," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 69(2), pages 223-234, July-Sept.
    17. Ilaria Zambon & Kostas Rontos & Cecilia Reynaud & Luca Salvati, 2020. "Toward an unwanted dividend? Fertility decline and the North–South divide in Italy, 1952–2018," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 169-187, February.
    18. Jesus Rodrigo-Comino & Gianluca Egidi & Luca Salvati & Giovanni Quaranta & Rosanna Salvia & Antonio Gimenez-Morera, 2021. "High-to-Low (Regional) Fertility Transitions in a Peripheral European Country: The Contribution of Exploratory Time Series Analysis," Data, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-14, February.
    19. Blanca Zuluaga & Luis Jaramillo & Luis Gamboa, 2017. "Economic conditions and birth spacing in Colombia: a semi-parametric approach," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 87, pages 97-123, Julio - D.
    20. Jan M. Hoem & Giuseppe Gabrielli & Aiva Jasilioniene & Dora Kostova & Anna Matysiak, 2010. "Levels of recent union formation," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(9), pages 199-210.

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