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Did the association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries really change its sign?

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  • Tomas Kögel

Abstract

Recent literature finds that in OECD countries the cross-country correlation between the total fertility rate and the female labor force participation rate, which until the beginning of the 1980s had a negative value, has since acquired a positive value. This result is (explicitly or implicitly) often interpreted as evidence for a changing sign in the time-series association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries. This paper shows that the time-series association between fertility and female employment does not demonstrate a change in sign. Instead, the reversal in the sign of the cross-country correlation is most likely due to a combination of two elements: First, the presence of unmeasured country-specific factors and, second, country-heterogeneity in the magnitude of the negative time-series association between fertility and female employment. However, the paper does find evidence for a reduction in the negative time-series association between fertility and female employment after about 1985. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2004

Suggested Citation

  • Tomas Kögel, 2004. "Did the association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries really change its sign?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 45-65, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:17:y:2004:i:1:p:45-65
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-003-0180-z
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    1. Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-387, June.
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    Keywords

    J10; J11; J13; Total fertility rate; female labor force participation rate; econometrics of panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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