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Sustainable maize production and climatic change in Nepal: robust role of climatic and non-climatic factors in the long-run and short-run

Author

Listed:
  • Abbas Ali Chandio

    (Sichuan Agricultural University)

  • Waqar Akram

    (Sukkur IBA University)

  • Uzma Bashir

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics)

  • Fayyaz Ahmad

    (Lanzhou University)

  • Sultan Adeel

    (Sukkur IBA University)

  • Yuansheng Jiang

    (Sichuan Agricultural University)

Abstract

Among all other leading challenges of this century, climate change affects people’s livelihoods, particularly those residing in rural areas. This study is the first attempt to assess the Long-run (LR) and Short-run (SR) impacts of climatic factors, namely CO2 emissions, temperature, and precipitation on maize production in Nepal from 1983 to 2016, with the incorporation of cultivated area, fertilizers use, and credit supply as important input factors of maize production. To analyze the time-series dataset, we applied the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), Vector error correction model (VECM), Impulse response function (IRF), and Variance decomposition (VD) methodologies. The results reveal that CO2 emissions and temperature decreased maize production in the short- and long-run while precipitation improved maize production in both cases. Also, cultivated area and fertilizers use significantly contributed to maize production in both periods. The results of the VECM causality indicate that rainfall and cultivated area have two-way causal associations with maize production. The CO2 emissions and credit represent unidirectional causality with maize production in the short-run. Besides, all variables share a significant long-run connection. Finally, the IRF and VD outcomes suggested that the effects of climatic and non-climatic factors are consistent on maize production. The policies recommend that better environmental quality is crucial for sustainable maize production in Nepal.

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  • Abbas Ali Chandio & Waqar Akram & Uzma Bashir & Fayyaz Ahmad & Sultan Adeel & Yuansheng Jiang, 2023. "Sustainable maize production and climatic change in Nepal: robust role of climatic and non-climatic factors in the long-run and short-run," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 1614-1644, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:25:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s10668-022-02111-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-022-02111-1
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