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Climate Change Impacts on Maize Production in the Warm Heart of Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Kondwani Msowoya

    (University of Central Florida)

  • Kaveh Madani

    (Imperial College London)

  • Rahman Davtalab

    (University of Central Florida)

  • Ali Mirchi

    (The University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Jay R. Lund

    (University of California)

Abstract

Agriculture is the mainstay of economy in Malawi - the warm heart of Africa. It employs 85 % of the labour force, and produces one third of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 90 % of foreign exchange earnings. Maize farming covers over 92 % of Malawi’s agricultural land and contributes over 54 % of national caloric intake. With a subtropical climate and ~99 % rainfed agriculture, Malawi relies heavily on precipitation for its agricultural production. Given the significance of rainfed maize for the nation’s labour force and GDP, we have investigated climate change effects on this staple crop. We show that rainfed maize production in the Lilongwe District, the largest maize growing district in Malawi, may decrease up to 14 % by mid-century due to climate change, rising to as much as 33 % loss by the century’s end. These declines can substantially harm Malawi’s food production and socioeconomic status. Supplemental irrigation, crop diversification and natural conservation methods are promising adaptation strategies to improve Malawi’s food security and socioeconomic stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Kondwani Msowoya & Kaveh Madani & Rahman Davtalab & Ali Mirchi & Jay R. Lund, 2016. "Climate Change Impacts on Maize Production in the Warm Heart of Africa," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5299-5312, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:14:d:10.1007_s11269-016-1487-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1487-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Abbas Ali Chandio & Waqar Akram & Uzma Bashir & Fayyaz Ahmad & Sultan Adeel & Yuansheng Jiang, 2023. "Sustainable maize production and climatic change in Nepal: robust role of climatic and non-climatic factors in the long-run and short-run," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 1614-1644, February.
    3. Boima M. Bernard & Yanping Song & Sehresh Hena & Fayyaz Ahmad & Xin Wang, 2022. "Assessing Africa’s Agricultural TFP for Food Security and Effects on Human Development: Evidence from 35 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-21, May.
    4. Qaisar Saddique & Huanjie Cai & Jiatun Xu & Ali Ajaz & Jianqiang He & Qiang Yu & Yunfei Wang & Hui Chen & Muhammad Imran Khan & De Li Liu & Liang He, 2020. "Analyzing adaptation strategies for maize production under future climate change in Guanzhong Plain, China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 1523-1543, December.
    5. Aida Mehrazar & Ali Reza Massah Bavani & Alireza Gohari & Mahmoud Mashal & Hadisseh Rahimikhoob, 2020. "Adaptation of Water Resources System to Water Scarcity and Climate Change in the Suburb Area of Megacities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(12), pages 3855-3877, September.
    6. Siminyu, Philip & Oluoch-Kosura, Willis & de Groote, Hugo & Mbau, Judith Syombua, 2021. "Assessing the contribution of climate-smart agricultural practices to the resilience of maize farmers in Bungoma County, Kenya," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(2), June.
    7. Clifton Makate & Marshall Makate, 2022. "Do Rainfall Shocks Prompt Commercial Input Purchases Amongst Smallholder Farmers in Diverse Regions and Environments in Malawi?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-31, November.
    8. Prăvălie, Remus & Sîrodoev, Igor & Patriche, Cristian & Roșca, Bogdan & Piticar, Adrian & Bandoc, Georgeta & Sfîcă, Lucian & Tişcovschi, Adrian & Dumitraşcu, Monica & Chifiriuc, Carmen & Mănoiu, Valen, 2020. "The impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Romania. A country-scale assessment based on the relationship between climatic water balance and maize yields in recent decades," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    9. Alireza Gohari & Ali Mirchi & Kaveh Madani, 2017. "System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1413-1434, March.
    10. Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen & Pavinee Chanvichit & Radshadaporn Janta & Vanisa Surapipith, 2021. "Projection of Rice and Maize Productions in Northern Thailand under Climate Change Scenario RCP8.5," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, January.
    11. Amadu, Festus O. & McNamara, Paul E. & Miller, Daniel C., 2020. "Yield effects of climate-smart agriculture aid investment in southern Malawi," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    12. Adib Roshani & Mehdi Hamidi, 2022. "Groundwater Level Fluctuations in Coastal Aquifer: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict the Impacts of Climatical CMIP6 Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(11), pages 3981-4001, September.
    13. Asfaw, Solomon & Pallante, Giacomo & Palma, Alessandro, 2020. "Distributional impacts of soil erosion on agricultural productivity and welfare in Malawi," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    14. Amadu, Festus O. & McNamara, Paul E. & Davis, Kristin E., 2021. "Soil health and grain yield impacts of climate resilient agriculture projects: Evidence from southern Malawi," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

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